Elliott Waves and The Top Of The Market, Is This THE TOP?

DD 👨‍🔬

Sup Apes

not financial advice

super brief post, I’ve received so many pings this AM I wanted to address it in a formal post.

the original post is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o02fnr/elliot_waves_gme_the_sp_500_wen_market_peak_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

I’ve seen a lot of chatter regarding my post saying SPY would peak around 430, and I wanted to add a few more targets for your viewing pleasure.

In that post, I believe I gave a target of around high 429, though there are multiple levels to watch out for. Remember, Elliott Wave gives us multiple targets, as we are analyzing many different time frames.

Outlined for your convenience:

1hr

I’m gonna zoom out so you can see the super cycle 5 target, as I believe this to be the most valid/important level. I got this target by measure waves 1-3 and bringing the extension down to the low of 4 (covid flash crash).

First level is the .618 level, next target being the .786.

The .618 level was passed long ago, narrowing our top end super cycle target at 432.08 (blue line):

super cycle from end of 08

clearly, even though i have a shit ton of borderline aneurism inducing levels, it looks like we are running out of steam.

Just for fun, I went and analyzed the grand super cycle of SPX, as the grand super cycle dates back to the low of the great depression (roaring twenties)

super briefly, just look and take from the image what you will.

monthly

IDK about you, but me thinks the music is about to stop.

in the first image, I provided a few targets as I am measure multiple different “cycles” if you will, all of which are point to a high around low to mid 430s.

There is no “magic level” per se, but fibs are not wrong. They are nature in essence, the golden ratio is everywhere.

After hitting our peak, my guess is around 432 should the peak not be today (nothing surprises me anymore) we begin our slow bleed. I do believe Gamestop among many other catalyst will cause a relatively harsh “A” wave if you will, on SPY it will likely drop to at least 345 before any significant buy pressure comes back, though this point would be the “B” wave. the fakeout. media will likely say the crash is over and its okay to buy. SPY won’t dip that hard. come on. be realistic.

LIES!

I believe SPY will come back to at least 250, timeframe for this is really hard to gauge, but based on previous bear markets, I’d guess at least a 2 year bear market.

Though we also haven’t had an event quite like this before, so as to how long the bear market will ensue, that’s anyone’s guess.

Given this is our Grand Super cycle completing from the low of the roaring twenties, it really is not crazy to think that we can (and likely will) correct 50% of that move.

IE, it is TOTALLY POSSIBLE for SPX (not spy) to drop down to around 2200 before beginning to recover.

SPX

I’ll leave you with this. I won’t theorize too much on the events that will cause this, I believe everyone has a pretty solid idea of whats about to happen. I just want to lay out the technicals, and how I PERSONALLY believe this will play out. I can be 100% wrong as can anyone else.

Be well.

It’s cynical, but I’m jacked.

TLDR: market peak close, market will fall hard soon. Media will likely say crash is over at the “B” phase of the correction wherein we rebound a bit. Don’t fall for it. GME go BOOM soon 🚀