| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/possibly6 |
Sup Apes
Elliot waves guy here doing my best to give you your daily dose of confirmation bias before the market opens!
Not financial advice, I do unimaginable things with the crayons I get when I ask for a kid’s menu at restaurants.
NON NEGOTIABLE: PLAY THIS AS YOU READ (This song slowly builds, idk the vibes feel right https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvBfiRWLj_0)
HAPPY FUCKING FATHERS DAY TO ALL YOU PAPA SILVERBACKS OUT THERE!!! If you’re drunk from the day’s festivities, this read will be even better.
This might be a shorter post, I don’t have too much to say as of yet other than I’m FUCKING JACKED 🚀
First off, I’m sure you all have seen the posts regarding bank stocks following and how we can potentially use that as a predictive indicator in terms of GME stock price. Great work here if you missed the post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o42bfm/big_banks_lost_a_lot_of_value_on_january_14th_but/
Let’s take a look at the banks last week:
This might be one of my favorite screenshots of all time. Let’s take a look at the banks back in the middle of january and see if that had any correlation to GME goin bananas at the end of January.
Given that GME’s run peaked in the end of January, the conclusions that I draw from that are the banks hit a low around GME’s peak. Granted, there were many outside factors at play back then, so this is all speculative. However, Let’s look at GME in january now, pay close attention to the dates on the bottom and compare those to the banks above:
just from eyeballing, we can see that the banks seem to find their “bottom” as GME begins to lift off. Does this mean the banks will go to zero before GME squeezes? absolutely not, please don’t think that will be the case. HOWEVER, we can assume that the financial sector and GME have some sort of inverse relationship, simply based on the erratic price action between the pairs.
This time around, I’m expecting banks to continue to fall as GME rises. Can’t halt buying this time around!
I haven’t charted out the bank stocks because frankly I don’t really care, I want the major banks at 0 personally, wouldn’t pay a penny more to hold that garbage (all my homies hate the financials sector)
Alright, so we can seemingly use the falling stock price of banks as a predictive indicator for upwards GME price action. Do note, I didn’t conduct any significance tests or anything, this is all simply from comparing candle charts and looking for similarities/differences.
Speaking of comparing candle charts, something super interesting was brought to my attention in a group discussion, big shoutout to u/roman_axt for the hard work you ultra wrinkly brained primate. Below are images of GME and the movie company, courtesy of u/roman_axt as the arrows are drawn so the smoothest of brains can interpret what tf is going on. Do note, these are from about a week ago, so not all candles are up to date (if it even matters)
The reason I bring this up is because some of my friends in the trading world (that only trade off price action mind you, they don’t really understand the whole GME saga) noticed this as well. It APPEARS that the movie company and GME not only move in a somewhat similar/predictable pattern, but GME seems to be lagging behind by about 2 or so weeks. Do note, this is just an approximation from eyeballing, please take this all with a grain of salt and remember I am retarded.
Here is a view sent to me by one of my good friends who noticed the same fishiness occurring (from mobile thinkorswim):
now what REALLY has me jacked is the pattern lines up from a few weeks ago, when the movie stock was trading for sub $16/share. It then ran to upwards of 70+. I was able to predict the movie stock’s relative high’s and low’s using EW as well, which I’ve gotta say is actually super exciting. I own none, BUT it worked on a seemingly “impossible” to time stock. Idk about you, but I don’t believe in coincidences.
Disclaimer, I hodl ZERO of the movie stock, I have always believed it was a distraction. the fact that the media is talking about it should tell you enough.
Now let’s tie this assumption into my GME elliot waves analysis, try not to get too jacked:
As stated time and time again, we are in a 3 within a 3 within a 3, which is quite literally an elliot wave trader’s wet dream. This setup is valid down to about 113, so I wouldn’t worry about “is the structure still valid?” yes. yes it is.
This is literally as bullish a setup you can get, all we need is a match to light the fuse. Our cycle 3 (white line) is targeting at the MINIMUM 440, though I would love to see the 1.618:1 ratio hit, as is most common for wave 3. This puts GME at roughly 582, though remember this is all pre squeeze.
As always, the motto is simple. Buy hodl, sell for life changing money (not no 10k/share bullshit, 8 figures/share is life changing in my eyes, and that’s just my floor).
I’m not saying we will break into the 400+ range this week by any means, but man the stars are aligning for some crazy shit to go down. I’m fookin jacked m8.
Lastly, let’s take a look at SPY and the VIX, as we can use each as a tool to gauge not only sentiment, but potential fuckery before it happens. In my post regarding the SP500 and GME, I brought up how In the January squeeze, SPY took a fucking HIT as GME broke into the hundreds for the first time ever. Here’s my view of SPY:
NGL, SPY is kind of in no man’s land right now. I’ll have to see how we open to have a better idea of where it’s going. By all means this COULD be the beginning of our long awaited bear market, but it could very well form an impulsive wave 1 to the upside to make for a final push to around 430 before shit hits the fan
My OWN PERSONAL THESIS is that we will see the markets pumped to valhalla 1 last time to try and draw as many “suckers” in so wall street can offload the bag at the peak. Put yourself in their shoes, seems like a logical play to strike fear into everyone, then prop the markets up a bit longer to make everyone think its okay, then proceed to dump the bag on them
Lastly, the VIX, the fear/volatility indicator:
Finished up 16% on friday? spicy. In one of my posts I mentioned how we can use the VIX to gauge when GME will potentially do something erratic. just compare the spikes of the VIX and GME, you’ll see there’s at least some correlation there. I mean shit, end of january? Clear as kenny’s “for sale” sign on his marked down penthouse that he suddenly is in a rush to sell. wonder why? (I think it sold actually lol, even funnier).
I’m preparing for the best while always expecting the worst. I’m never disappointed this way and always excited, 10/10 would recommend.
June 30 is the end of the grace period for banks, worth noting. I’m expecting the VIX to FLY when that happens, though again, pure speculation.
TLDR: worth the read. Banks falling is a potential indicator that GME will do some crazy shit, GME also appears to be lagging behind the movie stock. That part is pure speculation, but speculation is part of the fun part no? (Sorry the song doesn’t fit perfectly, you’d be surprised how much time i spend trying to link a fitting song lol. as long as you’re jacked, i consider this a job well done)
Now Imma go get high af so I’m well rested for MONDAY🚀 🚀 🚀
edit: funny story cause y’all are fam, I went to the porsche dealer yesterday to test drive my post-moass whip, and the salesman googled me before I came in to make sure I wasn’t some degenerate looking to crash their pristine GT4. I get there, and the salesman said he googled me and knew me as the elliot wave guy. Simulation confirmed. during the drive we talked about trading, I showed him my wave count, hopefully he got some GME. idk, random. Thought I’d share cause I thought it’s a nice story. This movement is bigger than we can comprehend. EW guy is in the bio of my socials, so he put 2 and 2 together after googling my real name.
Edit 2: proof I went and they let me drive the gt4:Â https://imgur.com/a/uzTn3OR
