| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/Hey_Madie |
Parabolic Strudel - The Ingredients
Preface
I’ve been following the extreme patterns and data points that GME presents for the better part of the last year. In that time, I’ve been refining a few theories specific to parabolic behavior. Whether at the 1-minute level or at the 1-day perspective. I have found that depending on the market conditions and with a particular set of variables, the price action for GME can be rapid and to a degree predictable. This analysis will show you a pulled-backed perspective and how the measure of 7 is the difference between a parabolic event or not.
The Theory
The RSI level for GME is being suppressed below the value of 53. If suppression were to lessen or stop, the strength and price action of GME would rapidly ascend with an unknown trajectory would persist.
“Madie, so what you’re saying is if GME gains enough strength and begins below RSI 53 and ascends past it to RSI 60 at the 1-day chart, that a parabolic event will happen?” - Yes!
I am not a cat, but I am a fan of The Doctor.
How accurate is your data?
I float on a few discords, I’ve been vibing on the WSBN Discord as of late.💚 At times, I will test data in real-time to gauge momentum shifts, whether negative or positive. I don’t let people know the outcome to mitigate someone taking it as financial advice. I have a solid pattern of momentum shift predictions. At this point, the theory work is very close to near accuracy. In the chart below, I indicated a time and momentum shift. It just so happen to extend into a parabolic event.
A different theory measured at the 1-minute level.
A few of my previous theory posts.
The Theory on GME Parabolic Activity
Working Theory of Parabolic Events 2.0
I’m bullish - Testing my Parabolic Theory
Indicators & Purpose
I see the potential value of this theory work to help define or create novel indicators to understand market conditions and landscape. All indicators use specific and public data points to provide us with a measure, not an answer. When the MOASS comes and goes, many of us will return to the market. I want to apply my theory work towards enacting change and scaling indicators based on the lessons learned and data related to GME, Shorting, et al. Indicators are in need of a refresh.
https://www.investopedia.com/top-7-technical-analysis-tools-4773275
Why should we care about new indicators and crazy theories like this?
Exhibit A - PLEASE WATCH JUST 2 MINUTES - Sorry, not yelling, but this sums it up and I’m sorry if you punch your screen.
“How Ken uses your behavior and his Quants take advantage of the retail trader.”
“Ken,
I’m Madie, a human/ape Quant that has found your patterns in mere months. Your Quants are weak.”
The Many Big Brains
I have been very fortunate and humbled to be invited and collaborate within a few big-brain quant groups. I have found that many DDer’s are finding quantifiable data but it doesn’t exactly match up with other DD’s to create a consistent argument basis. A good example is whether the T21 date is right or what is truly driving FTD data? The calculations line up but don’t always align with the border theory.
It is my opinion that it isn’t a matter of whether the DD is wrong. If the data is verifiable and can to a degree be quantified, then I feel that this is a new pattern of suppression that has been discovered.
Some will argue that the DD is simple, buy and hold. With that said, the evolving DD is still important work, it very well could uncover the manipulation of the system that is suppressing GME. All these patterns and data points will be validated when hedge fund data is made more public in the future. I foresee the correlations between the DD’s we know of today and connections to specific patterns connected to Algo trading patterns. I think much of what we see is the patterns starting to become more obvious.
So let’s dive a little deeper!
The Deep Dive
In this deep dive, I found a consistency of parabolic activity triggers. This measure of parabolic activity is specific to GME. The practice of shorting GME greatly influences the suppression of the strength and momentum of GME.
It’s colorful and this is worthy of absorbing. It is the magic variable.
The Visual Indicator
Parabolic occurrences are represented using rockets. The size represents the strength of the parabolic event. RSI 53 ascending to RSI 60 = Parabolic Event
I would recommend opening the chart in a new tab. The devil is in the details.
Parabolic Events are defined when RSI exceeds a value of 70+.
A Closer Look
This chart began at 5/3 using the daily chart. Notice the daily RSI build and eventual outcome of a parabolic event (RSI 70+).
GME Chart at 1D, starting on 5/3 - 5/27
Quant, you say?
Here is the quant data pertaining to the reasoning and use of RSI 53. I used a frequency polygon to determine the median factor of all RSI levels. 53 was the winner.
The frequency data set being used is between 8/26/2020 - 6/17/2021. The frequency represents the number of times that RSI dropped from RSI 53 to a value below 47.00-53.99.
The number 53 represents the lowest number with the highest frequency of being a part of parabolic price action.
Winner Winner, RSI 53 is the magic variable.
A standard chart.
Conclusion
If GME were left to run past RSI 53 and ascend to RSI 60+, the result would be a parabolic event. It’s as simple as that. GME is influenced by many factors, but the data in this analysis should conclude that between RSI 53-60, the factor of 7 is what remains between the parabolic and the suppressed state. The fact of the matter is that this method is beginning to show a trend towards a declining slope of effectiveness. Educate yourself and keep your head on a swivel. 💚
…or is it?
Sources
TL;DR: Keeping Holding! 🦍🚀🍌