| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/Nalifi |
This is not financial advice. I am a retard who always lets one banana in the bunch he buys go bad because I can’t time eating the bananas correctly.
This post will re-analyze Cohen’s tweets and Gamestop’s positive price movements in relation to u/Criand’s new T+21 net capital thesis.
First of all I would like to lead you to Criand’s new post, “Revisit to Net Capital”.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/
I believe that TA does not apply to our favorite stock (but look forward to Elliot Wave guys proving me wrong), but the initial T+21/T+35 cycles were unique in that they don’t rely on normal stock behavior, and instead analyze the unique situation GME is in (excessive shorting, FTD’s). Additionally, it has had almost a 100% success rate at predicting price movements.
I believe the net capital requirement thesis ties this together by eliminating loose ends in the previous theory, such as the shaky T+35 price movements, in addition to providing a solid explanation as to why these movements occur.
I decided to take this opportunity to revisit speculation on Cohen’s tweets/Gamestop major news, their timing, and analyze if these were the causes of price movements (and thus not the actual cycles). I decided to investigate by going full retard on my only day off and investigating each news report compared to the net capital cycle. The result has my tits absolutely, indescribably jacked:
If you’d like to follow along, let’s open Criand’s beautiful chart -
and take a look with some positive Gamestop news catalysts and tweets from our favorite Ryan Cohen. I’ll keep this area to data only and leave speculations for the end.
1. The Ice Cream Cone
https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1364650709669601289
Ryan Cohen tweets the famous ice cream cone on Feb 24, lining up perfectly with the T+21 net capital requirement date. The price rockets that day.
2. Voluntary redemption of senior notes is announced.
GME announces a voluntary early redemption of senior notes on April 13th. Price spike is April 13 AH – T+14 date is April 15th. The positive news does not correlate with price movement.
Side note:Â DFV Final Yolo update: April 16th
3. Cohen train tweet.
https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1386485746916380673
April 25th: Cohen tweets a train coming. South Park. This is one day before the T+21 or 75% Net capital cycle. Additionally:
4. Gamestop announces completion of the At-The-Market equity offering program.
This news is placed directly on the T+21 date. Price spikes.
May 3rd; Gamestop completes voluntary early redemption of senior notes, leading them out of debt.
T+7 is May 5th, no price movement on this announcement. They also announce acquisition of a 700,000 sq. ft fulfillment center, resulting in no price movement.
May 11; Gamestop tweets man on the moon, T+14 is May 14th,
May 12, Gamestop Esports twitter profile is launched.
None of these announcements result in significant price movement.
May 25, Ryan Cohen tweets “Don’t try this at home” at 12:32 AM, midnight before market open on the T+21 cycle the next day.
https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1397047791889879041
Price spike.
Later that day, the Gamestop NFT is found. It has a launch date of July 14, 1 day before June 24 T+14 cycle.
May 29, Cohen tweets “R.I.P. dumb ass”, noting that the T+21 cycle has been figured out and the Hedgies. Are. Fuk.
Speculation:
Cohen is fully aware of the T+21 net capital loop that the hedge funds are trapped in. Given that both good news and hype tweets are clearly insufficient to result in a positive price movement (See: May 3rd, May 11, May 12, April 13), I am highly doubtful that an ice cream cone tweet is enough to drive up the price by over 100%.
I believe that Cohen has had this figured out since very early on, and that’s clear in his tweet behavior on later T+21 dates.
This can also explain why Gamestop made the choice to conduct a share offering on 6/9 -
6/9, the Gamestop shareholder meeting, as meme of a date as it may be, is not on a significant net capital requirement date, and thus Cohen and friends were well aware that the price would fall again. To counteract negative sentiment, he announces the share offering; effectively, FUD immunity, because any negative movement can be attributed to it. Additionally, it provides 1 billion dollars in capital for future positive announcements, which he can place on the T+21 dates; for example, the June 24 T+21, which is in close proximity to the Russel rebalancing. Note: So far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with T+21 dates. If positive Gamestop news; an acquisition, a dividend, NFT’s, esports deals lines up… oh god. No dates, but those with shares have nothing to worry about - they’re in good hands. Only up.
Tl;dr: Cohen is well aware of the T+21 dates and has lined up his own tweets in clear indication of it. The 6/9 ATM market offering, although I know many apes including myself were disappointed by, is basically FUD immunity as the price falls in between T+21 cycles. Furthermore, it raises capital for positive corporate announcements which can be lined up with T+21 dates, which so far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with. Price movements are largely irrelevant to news.
We’re in good hands. If you hodl shares, there’s nothing to worry about. HODL!
Edit: formatting. If anyone has criticisms, announcements, or additional news that I missed, please comment below.
Not financial advice.
EDIT: Guys I fucking missed one.
On March 25, Cohen tweets our smoky teddy,
https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1375159657166209031
Lining up with the T+21Â date on March 25th.
With this, out of 18 Cohen tweets since his activity in Gamestop, 4 of them line up with the 5 T+21 cycle days thus far, missing only the first one on January. While it is possible that this is a coincidence, given that there’s about 180 days since the beginning of all this I don’t think it’s very likely. If anyone is a statistics legend and could calculate the probability that this is random it would be much appreciated. Also, I don’t think there’s much of another reason why he would tweet an ice cream cone.
edit: Reached out to friend who is a statistics major. He just graduated and doesn’t want to do math but his response was - “Pretty sure though just from inspection it’ll be statistically significant”. Statisticians who are not lazy bums please comment if you can figure this out!
edit 2: Update - math wrinkle brain messaged me with:
“I can’t post bc of karma but the probability of having at least 4 right dates on 5 while picking 18 out of 180 is 0.0339% It’s an hypergeometric law.”
In basically any statistical research model this is significant. As always if anyone has any corrections to this please comment or message me. Tits jacked!
