| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/head4headsup |
GME Micro (5-minute Candles) - EOD 6/10
Obligatory Intro…
This is an analysis of GME stock price movements using Elliott Wave Theory. To learn the basics of Elliott Wave (EW, please visit) r/ElliottWaveTrading. I also recommend the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter (link in that sub. While Elliott Wave is great at predicting price targets in the most probable coming scenarios, it does not make timing projections. Wave development can occur over long periods of time or in just a few candles of the chart (as witnessed in JAN and MAR for GME. EW can be useful for the investor in many ways, especially if seeking to buy, and looking for the next most probable dip (discount in the share price; it can provide clarity in moments of chaos to aid the observer in understanding likely next moves within a trend or countertrend, avoiding blindness/guessing (among many other uses. It may build stoicism and be easier to avoid paper hands if the dip you encounter was expected. Knowing something may be coming, and what it may look like, is often less distracting that being blindsided.)
REMEMBER THIS… I AM NOT SAYING SELL, I AM NOT SAYING BUY. I AM NOT SAYING DAY-TRADE THIS. I am simply offering my opinion of market movements of GME.
Go back up there ^ and read the Obligatory Intro. Please. Then come back down here.
Reading My Charts:
There are a few differing sources for the correct way to label the degree of waves. Some require circles, some double parenthesis. I have settled on this for my waves, and it will be handy to reference this if my charts are to make any sense.
Supercycle: (I) - (V) may take months or years to complete.
Cycle: I-V may take weeks or months to complete
Primary: (i)-(v) take days or weeks to complete
Minor: (1)-(5) may take hours or days to complete
Minuette: i-v may take hours to complete
Micro: 1-5 may take minutes to hours to complete
Miniscule: ((i))-((v)) may take minutes to hours to complete
Daily Update
What had happened was... I said...
> More sideways or downside is the left circle; immediate break of $300 confirms right side circle
What transpired was a rhyme, with a different label.
So, this weekend I updated that it looked like there was the potential for a peak and serious retrace. And while I thought would be the beginning of Primary Wave (iii), another look at how that wave (i) impulse developed and finished is in order.
You see, Wave One of a third wave has two likely targets: the standard fib is the .382 and the .618. That is, as an extension of the larger degree first wave completed, as projected up from the larger degree second wave. In this case Cycle Wave I and II had completed with the March High and the May Low. When Cycle Wave III began, it's first wave then could target the standard .382 or .618. However, as the wave developed, the first candidate wave (i) never hit the .382, and it's retrace was shallow. As the wave reached higher and higher, at no point was there a wave (ii) retrace down in the standard .618 retrace of (i). Each retrace was very shallow. I even stated this weekend that if wave (i) and (ii) were already in, and this was indeed Primary Wave (iii) already, it certainly didn't feel like it. No rip-your-face-off impulse to the upside.... yet. AND... since no wave two retrace after hitting the .382... was it possible this was an extended wave one reaching for the .618?
What's that up in the Sky?
Then it happened. Tuesday, 6/8, a major spike sent price up to reach the .618 at $327.55, surpassing that and hitting $343.00 before turning back down. As soon as it did I zoomed out and saw it. Indeed, this looked like a new top for Primary Wave (i), and in private chat I confided that a major impulse wave like a Primary is followed by it's major corrective wave. At that time I gave a target of $215 for Primary Wave (ii). Here we are, two days later and that target has been hit, as we reached $211.00 today (what is with the exact dollar figures at the turn points???). For those following the chart this weekend, you would have seen the potential for this pullback in the Alt Yellow count with a target of $220.
Tribe Called Quest -
If... IF... Primary Wave (ii) has indeed completed after reaching the standard .618 retrace, THEN I expect a Primary Wave (iii) to get underway, developing in five-wave structures beginning with Minor Wave (1) of (iii), which should target the .382 extension of (i) from (ii) at $289.85, should itself subdivide into five waves as it develops and reaches toward that target. If those waves develop as expected, then the target for wave (3) of (iii) is $417.41, and all (iii) should reach a range between $445.59 and $496.26, the 1.0 extension of the larger degree wave I from II, and the 1.382 extension of the same degree (i) from (ii), respectively.
Are we finally getting the dramatic, fabled, oft revered "3rd of a 3rd"... in this case Primary Wave (iii) of Cycle Wave? If we get those impulse waves to the upside with nominal retraces, then very possibly. Here is a taste of where I think we are and where we are headed.
[](https://preview.redd.it/y0kvhes7ui471.jpg?width=1513&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c1f5d6434425a70ba50738a50f9edbaddd3cef1)
GME Hourly candles - 6/10 EOD Update: If primary bullish plays out. Wave (i) reached .618 extension of I from II- (right oval); Wave (ii) reached .618 retrace of (i) - (left oval). Please do not infer timing from upcoming wave label placements.
But, what if...
Any further downside would need to be analyzed for incorrect read of impulse in (i), OR a possible deeper wave (ii) exceeding the standard retrace. Major support lies at $136.59, which is the currently labeled start of Primary Wave (i) in Cycle Wave III.
I have no reason to believe we will see more downside immediately, since we have reached the deepest usual target, .618. If it does, I will need to revisit my analysis, plain and simple.
~~~~~ End Daily Update ~~~
[](https://preview.redd.it/rpwovocuui471.jpg?width=1382&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da89e347109259147598210690b0bcaa811fe707)
GME may have just reached two major Elliott Wave targets this week, in red i and red ii in this graphic. Those waves are Primary (i) and Primary (ii) in the narrative. I believe GME price is currently at the blue circle.
Big Picture
- I believe we have started Cycle III, with Primary Wave (i) and (ii) likely completed.
- Cycle III must subdivide in five Primary waves: (i)-(v), each likely taking weeks;
- which would each need to subdivide in five Minor waves (1)-(5), each likely taking hour or days;
- which would each need to subdivide in five Minuette waves i-v, each taking hours;
- each subdividing in five Micro waves 1-5, each taking minutes to hours.
> *Recall that when upcoming waves are projected from the larger degree 1-2, they are guideposts of what to expect, but the more accurate projections come from the calculations of the subwaves as they develop in that wave degree. Once wave (ii) completes, and we have confirmation with a new impulse in wave (1) of (iii), then I can more accurately calculate projections of where (iii) [and then naturally (iv) and (iv) also depending on their subwaves] will complete. Remember - targets may extend if prior subwaves develop with extensions.*
>
> *This is again just one theory of technical analysis (and the most accurate I've seen). It is prudent to consider this may be how it plays out, even if hopes are for this to get thrown out the window once we moon and circuit breakers start trippin' etc. Until moon, I am left with leveraging my understanding of human psychology en masse and how it is reflected in price in the markets. Elliott Wave analysis infers it may be possible.... Diamond Hands are earned, not given!*
>
> *I am so excited for this. Of course if the circuit breakers trip and I get a MOASS instead, I'm sure I'll be just fine.*
~~~~ end of Big Picture ~~~~
Really Big Picture: Major Waves Completed (aka How Did We Get Here?)
- I believe Major Waves (I) and (II) are in place (January High and February Low, respectively)
- I believe we are in major wave (III), with Major waves I and II in place (March high and April low, respectively)
- I believe we are in wave III, with wave (iii) underway
- I believe we just completed wave C of (ii). C completes (ii), but too deep (below $136.59) and this impulse invalidates.
- Longer Term Targets Still Intact (not invalidated) -
- (iii) of III UPDATED - at the 1.000 extension of I from II = $445.59; $96.26 as 1.382 of (i) from (ii)
- III of (III) - at the 1.000 extension of (I) from (II) = $520.12
- (III) - at the 1.764 extension of same degree waves (I) from (II) = $850.23
All of these targets are subject to recalculation as subwaves develop. Subwave target calculations override projections from fibs of larger waves completed, but finding confluence at those fibs is great confirmation.
I realize the MOASS could just blow these labels up and force me to use the double parenthesis-bold-capital Roman numeral ((I)) etc for a degree beyond the current (I-(V). I hope we get that chance. It will be glorious to bust out that gigantic crayon. Word. What is very likely is that once artificial means are employed to satisfy a short squeeze (e.g. circuit breakers; DTCC forced purchases to resolve a defaulting member) then EW targets cease to be effective, and will come back into play once selling of shares occurs on the backside of the squeeze.)
**Housekeeping Reminder -** Label placements should not be inferred as 'timing' projections. EW does not espouse 'when', just likely 'where' price targets are hit before turning back up or down. Labels are placed on the chart for general ease of visualizing how the wave may develop at price points. There are some great analysts that post Bayesian Timing targets, but I have not seen any doing so for GME yet.
TL;DR - Primary Wave (i) extends to reach and surpass the .618 fib, which qualifies this as an ‘extended’ beginning to a third wave (Primary (iii)) which will likely raise targets as the wave develops). Wave (ii) retraced the full .618 today, surpassing the $215 target when reaching down to $211. If Primary (ii) is complete, then Primary (iii) should subdivide in five waves, with Wave (1) targeting $289.85 (itself dividing into five waves on it’s way to $289). Primary Wave (iii) target between $445.59 (1.0 extension of larger degree wave I from II) and $496.26 (1.236 extension of same degree wave (i) from (ii)). Any further downside would need to be analyzed for incorrect read of impulse in (i), or deeper wave (ii) exceeding the standard retrace. Major support lies at $136.59, which is the currently labeled start of Primary Wave (i) in Cycle Wave III.
~~~~ end TL;DR ~~~~
In Ape - Yep, that big swing up took lots of energy… needed a big rest. Found a good branch that I would typically rest on. Still a really strong branch below if I go down any further. From this branch, I could easily start swinging much higher into the higher branches, with little rests along the way.
~~~~ end In Ape ~~~~
H4HU - EWApe/HODLer/ 🦍🖍🌊💎👐🏼 /I Like The Stock! I am long GME. I have never sold short.
To learn the basics of Elliott Wave, please visit r/ElliottWaveTrading.
PLEASE NOTE:
This is not financial advice, I am not a registered broker and this is for entertainment purposes only.
Past performance does not equal future returns, and all equity investments entail risk.
The views expressed are the views of the author, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author.
The views expressed are solely the author’s approach to investing in this specific equity.