| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/head4headsup |
GME Micro (5-minute candles) - 6/2 morning update
Obligatory Intro…
This is an analysis of GME stock price movements using Elliott Wave Theory. To learn the basics of Elliott Wave (EW, please visit) r/ElliottWaveTrading. I also recommend the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter (link in that sub. While Elliott Wave is great at predicting price targets in the most probable coming scenarios, it does not make timing projections. Wave development can occur over long periods of time or in just a few candles of the chart (as witnessed in JAN and MAR for GME. EW can be useful for the investor in many ways, especially if seeking to buy, and looking for the next most probable dip (discount in the share price; it can provide clarity in moments of chaos to aid the observer in understanding likely next moves within a trend or countertrend, avoiding blindness/guessing (among many other uses). It may build stoicism and be easier to avoid paper hands if the dip you encounter was expected. Knowing something may be coming, and what it may look like, is often less distracting that being blindsided.)
REMEMBER THIS… I AM NOT SAYING SELL, I AM NOT SAYING BUY. I AM NOT SAYING DAY-TRADE THIS. I am simply offering my opinion of market movements of GME. Go back up there ^ and read the Obligatory Intro. Please. Then come back down here.
Reading My Charts:
There are a few differing sources for the correct way to label the degree of waves. Some require circles, some double parenthesis. I have settled on this for my waves, and it will be handy to reference this if my charts are to make any sense.
Supercycle (Major): (I) - (V) may take months or years to complete.
Wave (I) took nearly 20 years. Wave (II) may have only taken a month.
Cycle: I-V may take weeks or months to complete
Primary: (i)-(v) take days or weeks to complete
Minor: (1)-(5) may take hours or days to complete
Minuette: i-v may take hours to complete
Micro: 1-5 may take minutes to hours to complete
Miniscule: ((i))-((v)) may take minutes to hours to complete
Morning Update
Wave C/(ii) Targets - A Tribe Called Quest -
Wave (ii) started out as a gentle a-b dip/bounce and was followed by a dramatic c wave down to *potentially* complete A, which found support where wave 2 of iii of (5) of the previous impulse sits. I originally thought Wave B retraced a very modest .382 before heading down in wave C, which typically develops as a five-wave move. But more upside has me viewing the Alternate Yellow count.
This presents as a larger B wave with an a-b and then an Ending Diagonal in c of B. If this is indeed the Alt Yellow count playing out, I expect C to equal A, with a downside target of $212.39, this would equate to a Wave (ii) retrace of (i) between the .382 and .500 fibs. Same degree wave retrace calculations will be possible as it develops to the downside.
After that? - UPSIDE... yes, as noted above, once Wave (ii) completes, we finally get the dramatic, fabled, oft revered "3rd of a 3rd"... in this case Primary Wave (iii) of Cycle Wave III. Here is a taste of where I think we are and where we are headed.
~~~~~ End Morning Update ~~~
Recap from Weekend Update - In case you missed it
I believe we have started Cycle III, with Primary Wave (i) completing at Friday's high.
If so, Cycle III would need to subdivide in five Primary waves: (i)-(v), each likely taking weeks;
- which would each need to subdivide in five Minor waves (1)-(5), each likely taking hour or days;
- which would each need to subdivide in five Minuette waves i-v, each taking hours;
- each subdividing in five Micro waves 1-5, each taking minutes to hours.
So how did we do with EW during wave (i)?
*A String of Pearls (EW Successes - Fib targets hit proximity or surpassed) -*
Once that Micro Wave (1) and (2) were in place, it looked like (3) was underway with a i-ii in place on Monday 5/24. My targets for more upside once iii was underway were:
> Wave 3 of iii of (3) - $212.73 at the 1.236 fibs. It reached this and struck Phi (The Golden Ratio) at the 1.618, clearing it by 4 cents landing at $217.07. This also found confluence of the 1.0 larger degree i common for a "3-of-3", clearing by 25 cents.\
> Wave 4 of iii retrace targeted the 1.0 at $205.71. It came up shallow, but in a sufficient range and wave count at $206.25, within 54 cents\
> Wave iii targeted at least $213.11, reached that and extended to $217.11\
> Wave (3) would normally target the 1.382 fib, reached that and surpassed, nearly reaching Phi/1.618 at $249.37, settling just short at $248.4 before turning down in Wave (4)\
> Wave (4) retrace - $226.29 target; $227.08 actual (within 79 cents).\
> Wave iv of (5) - $250.15 target; actual $251.23 (within $1.08)\
> Wave (5)/(i) - v of (5) targeted $270.10 at the 1.618; (5) targeted - $269.47 at the 2.0; (i) targeted the $254.63 at the .382 (surpassed in the subwaves) ~~~ Actual: $268.00 (within $2.10 of Minuette wave target; $1.47 of Minor wave target; surpassed Cycle wave target by $13.37.... this is why I stated earlier that Larger degree wave targets are overridden by the more accurate subwave targets as they develop).~~~
Thursday night, I noted in my post that Primary wave (i) was about to complete, and immediately following that would be a turn in price, a retrace in a wave (ii) pullback equal to .5 to .618 fibs of the entire size of wave (i), targeting $187.59-$203.35, developing in a three-wave structure labeled ABC, where A and C are down, B is up between them. This was not well received, but it is strict Elliott Wave adherence nonetheless.
Yes, I consider Friday another EW success, as I saw the rise needed to complete wave 5/v/(5)/(i), and IMMEDIATELY saw a sharp reversal. This is what I believed my Elliott Wave count told us was coming, (and yes I was literally called a shill for having the audacity to post my analysis. I guess they never read my other myriad posts and just assumed this was a one-off FUD attempt. <Sigh>).
Recall that when upcoming waves are projected from the larger degree 1-2, they are guideposts of what to expect, but the more accurate projections come from the calculations of the subwaves as they develop in that wave degree. Once wave (ii) completes, and we have confirmation with a new impulse in wave (1) of (iii), then I can more accurately calculate projections of where (iii) [and then naturally (iv) and (iv) also depending on their subwaves] will complete. Remember - targets may extend if prior subwaves develop with extensions.
[](https://preview.redd.it/6ppkpehtdv271.png?width=1382&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c37766148547c9d693a4f1d2bd167e005b6a373)
Elliott Wave Standard Impulse structure
This is again just one theory of technical analysis (and the most accurate I've seen). It is prudent to expect this to play out, even if we all hope for this to get thrown out the window once we moon and circuit breakers start trippin' etc. Until moon, I am left with leveraging my understanding of human psychology en masse and how it is reflected in price in the markets. Expect it... plan on it... Elliott Wave said it may be possible.... Diamond Hands are earned, not given!
I am so excited for this. Of course if the circuit breakers trip and I get a MOASS instead, I'm sure I'll be just fine.
~~~~ end of recap ~~~~
Really Big Picture: How Did We Get Here?
- I believe Major Waves (I) and (II) are in place (January High and February Low, respectively)
- I believe we are in major wave (III), with Major waves I and II in place (March high and April low, respectively)
- I believe we are in wave III, with wave (ii) underway
- I believe we are in wave C of (ii). C completes (ii)
Longer Term Targets Still Intact (not invalidated) -
- (iii) of III UPDATED - at the 1.000 extension of I from II = $445.59; $422.36-$453.37 as 1.746-2.0 of (ii)
- III of (III) - at the 1.000 extension of (I) from (II) = $520.12
- (III) - at the 1.764 extension of same degree waves (I) from (II) = $850.23
- All of these subject to recalculation as subwaves develop. Subwave target calculations override projections from fibs of larger waves completed, but finding confluence at those fibs is great confirmation.
*I realize the MOASS could just blow these labels up and force me to use the double parenthesis-bold-capital Roman numeral* *((I))* *etc for a degree beyond the current (I)-(V). I hope we get that chance. It will be glorious to bust out that gigantic crayon. Word. What is very likely is that once artificial means are employed to satisfy a short squeeze (e.g. circuit breakers; DTCC forced purchases to resolve a defaulting member) then EW targets cease to be effective, and will come back into play once selling of shares occurs on the backside of the squeeze.*
**Housekeeping Reminder -** Label placements should not be inferred as 'timing' projections. EW does not espouse 'when', just likely 'where' price targets are hit before turning back up or down. Labels are placed on the chart for general ease of visualizing how the wave may develop at price points. There are some great analysts that post Bayesian Timing targets, but I have not seen any doing so for GME yet.
~~~~~
TL;DR - Primary Wave (i) complete as projected, with immediate reversal in Primary Wave (ii), as projected. Wave (ii) should retrace to the .618 distance of covered from $136 to $250. Wave (ii) target between $187-$203... But wave (ii) is playing out with an Alt Yellow count. Either (ii) is already done (and too shallow, not even hitting the .382 retrace of (i), ) OR the Alt Yellow A and B are in place and wave C targets between the .382 and .500 retrace at $212.39. Just a little more corrective/consolidation so we can see the monster Wave (iii) of III. This is Elliott Wave... impulse waves need these retraces to coil up sentiment for the big spring up.
~~~~ end TL;DR ~~~~
In Ape - The bananas up here are great... and even when I rest, the bigger bananas up higher are easily within view. If I rest a little more, will feel really strong and start Leaping Up to the higher branches..
H4HU - EWApe/HODLer/💎👐🏼/I Like The Stock! I am long GME. I have never sold short.
To learn the basics of Elliott Wave, please visit r/ElliottWaveTrading.
PLEASE NOTE:
This is not financial advice, I am not a registered broker and this is for entertainment purposes only.
Past performance does not equal future returns, and all equity investments entail risk.
The views expressed are the views of the author, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author.
The views expressed are solely the author’s approach to investing in this specific equity.