| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/head4headsup |
GME Micro (5-minute candles) - 5/26 EOD Elliott Wave Count
Obligatory Intro… This is an analysis of GME stock price movements using Elliott Wave Theory. To learn the basics of Elliott Wave (EW), please visit r/ElliottWaveTrading. I also recommend the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter (link in the sub above). While Elliott Wave is great at predicting price targets in the most probable coming scenarios, it does not make timing projections. Wave development can occur over long periods of time or in just a few candles of the chart (as witnessed in JAN and MAR for GME). EW can be useful for the investor in many ways, especially if seeking to buy, and looking for the next most probable dip (discount) in the share price; it can provide clarity in moments of chaos to aid the observer in understanding likely next moves within a trend or countertrend, avoiding blindness/guessing (among many other uses). It may be easier to avoid paper hands if the dip you encounter was expected, and holds above the lower target for that move.
Today’s Update
A Tribe Called Quest -
Primary bullish count continues to play out, with all fib targets hit or surpassed in the completed waves. Yesterday, continued a string of three-consecutive bullish wave degrees on impulse: On 5/18 wave (1) completed followed by a wave (2) retrace on 5/19. The subwaves of wave (3) set out with subwave i and ii both completing on 5/24. The subwaves of wave iii set out yesterday with 1, 2 and 3 completing nicely… notably wave 3 nailing the 1.0 extension of i and clearing it by $0.25 (recall yesterday I said wave 3 may really haul ass… not wrong ;). I was unsure if the minor pullback to end the day yesterday was enough for wave4 of (3), but it turns out that small bump/dip to end the day was the perfect setup for…
Today’s action…
… Wave 5 of iii of (3) of (i) of III to finish with a gap up this morning at the open in extended fashion, followed by Wave iv and then an Ending Diagonal for v/(3), which would normally target the 1.382 fib, reached nearly the 1.618 (Golden Ratio/Phi) target of $249.37, settling just short at $248.40 before turning down in Wave (4).
Wave (4) appears to be well underway (nearly complete) with waves a and b apparently set. Typically, wave c to finish wave (4) is of the same size as wave a… so if c=a, then Wave 4 should target at least down to $226.29, remembering that a deeper pullback to the 1.0 extension of (1) at $216.86 is within fib standards.
Upside potentials?
After that? - The downside after a larger degree wave completes (like we will see when (i) finishes and (ii) corrects down) shakes out the paper hands. Losing 2/3 of the run-up from $136 to $250ish is scary… but that is human psychology… expect it… plan on it… Elliott Wave told you it was coming…. Diamond Hand that shit because you will LOVE what wave (iii) of III looks like!
~~~~ end of update ~~~~~~
Big Picture: How Did We Get Here?
I believe Major Waves (I) and (II) are in place (January High and February Low, respectively)
I believe we are in major wave (III), with Major waves I and II in place (March high and April low, respectively)
I believe we are in wave III, with waves (i) underway
I believe we are in wave ii of (4) of (i).
Longer Term Targets Still Intact (not invalidated) -
(iii) of III - at the 1.000 extension of I from II = $441.00
III of (III) - at the 1.000 extension of (I) from (II) = $520.12
(III) - at the 1.764 extension of same degree waves (I) from (II) = $850.23
All of these subject to recalculation if subwaves extend to higher fibs
I realize the MOASS could just blow these labels up and force me to use the double parenthesis-bold-capital Roman numeral ((I)) etc for a degree beyond the current (I)-(V). I hope we get that chance. It will be glorious to bust out that gigantic crayon. Word.
Housekeeping Reminder - Label placements should not be inferred as ‘timing’ projections. EW does not espouse ‘when’, just likely ‘where’ price targets are hit before turning back up or down. Labels are placed on the chart for general ease of visualizing how the wave may develop at price points. There are some great analysts that post Bayesian Timing targets, but I have not seen any doing so for GME yet.
TL;DR - Wave (i) of III almost complete. Wave (4) underway and (5) next. Once Wave (i) completes in the $250 region, Wave (ii) should retrace about 2/3 the distance covered from $136 to $250. Be prepared for that... diamond hand that so you can see the monster Wave (iii) of III. You were forewarned by Elliott Wave... no excuses.
~~~~ end TL;DR ~~~~
In Ape - These bananas up here are delicious, but just an appetizer for where going next. A little rest, another swing up, then a big rest before the crown.
H4HU - EWApe/HODLer/💎👐🏼/I Like The Stock! I am long GME. I have never sold short.
To learn the basics of Elliott Wave, please visit r/ElliottWaveTrading.
PLEASE NOTE:
This is not financial advice, I am not a registered broker and this is for entertainment purposes only.
Past performance does not equal future returns, and all equity investments entail risk.
The views expressed are the views of the author, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author.
The views expressed are solely the author’s approach to investing in this specific equity.