Timeline of Micheal Burry Tweets & Events Before Deleting Twitter Account: 3/3/21 he tweeted why Volkswagen was in position to take a significant share of the EV Market in the near future, additionally tweeting “I don’t own a Porsche, but I own the Porsche that owns VW that owns Porsche”…(cont)

Author Source
u/ScionCopyCat Reddit

General

(EDIT: u/amethyst_crystal pointed out 13F don’t include non-US assets, so no matter what porsche se wouldn’t be on the 13F, meaning the majority of this post is kind of pointless, only thing worth speculating about in this post is why the SEC decided to pay Burry a visit)

3/3/21 - Micheal Burry posts several tweets that suggests he is bullish on Volkswagen’s ability to capitalize on the future EV market and heavily implies that he owns shares of Porsche Holdings SE because of this upside.

(Note: Porsche Holdings SE owns “53.3 percent of the ordinary shares and 31.4 percent of the subscribed capital of Volkswagen AG” https://www.porsche-se.com/en/company/holding-structure)

3/4/21 - Micheal Burry next tweet is in Vietnamese ”Bạn biết vị trí của tôi bây giờ, không cần phải nghe thêm từ tôi” which translates to “You know my position now, no need to hear more from me”

From 3/3/21 to 3/17/21 - POAHF and POAHY increase by about 19% and 17% respectively in that timeframe (honestly, unsure of the differences between these tickers).

3/18/21 - The next Micheal Burry tweet: ”Tweeting and getting in the news lately apparently has caused the SEC to pay us a visit. Lovely. #nomoretweets”

3/31/21 - 13F reporting end date

4/2/21 - First Micheal Burry tweet since the news of the SEC visit and its nothing stock market related, he just tries to draw attention to a nonprofit fund raiser

4/6/21 - News articles are published that Micheal Burry’s Twitter account is now deleted, his twitter account currently remains deleted (https://twitter.com/michaeljburry)

5/17/21 - Scion 13F is released and there is no evidence of Scion owning any Porsche or VW shares…

(EDIT: u/amethyst_crystal pointed out 13F don’t include non-US assets, so no matter what it wouldn’t be on there)

Honestly, I am not sure what to make of this timeline and wanted to hear some others’ thoughts.

I was just expecting some Porsche or VW shares to appear on Scion’s 13F and kind of just thought about it today that there wasn’t any on there. It is hard for me to believe he lied because Micheal Burry is known for his honesty, case in point, “In his Match.com profile, he described himself frankly as ‘a medical student with only one eye, an awkward social manner, and $145,000 in student loans.’ His obsession with personal honesty was a cousin to his obsession with fairness.” (Chapter 2 of “The Big Short” Book by Micheal Lewis).

Now speculating there are several possibilities I can see:

(EDIT: u/amethyst_crystal pointed out 13F don’t include non-US assets, so no need to speculate about the 13F as no matter what it wouldn’t be on there)

  1. He lied to manipulate the market and indirectly help his TSLA short positions and/or to pump and dump POAHY/POAHF (This one is the most unlikely in my opinion)

  2. He bought shares of Porsche SE, then sold based on fundamentals and his personal valuation. e.g. once the stock prices went up potentially 50+% from when he bought them, he thought they were fair/over valued with limited upside remaining in the near future and then sold his shares according to this belief. (50+% is based on the low and high prices between 13F reporting dates, 1/1/21-3/31/21) (this seems most likely to me, but this also implies (un)intentional pump and dump)

  3. He bought shares of Porsche SE, then sold after SEC told him to or maybe to try and clear his name in a market manipulation investigation. (seems very unlikely, and doubt that would change anything in terms of an investigation)

  4. He owns shares of Porsche SE in a personal account or other type of account where he was not required to disclose his positions, or potentially Scion bought them using a total return swap or similar derivative that allows these positions to not be disclosed. (seems plausible)

  5. Scion did not disclose this position in an error. (Unlikely as Burry is meticulous, but plausible because it seems the SEC does not check 13F for errors and there are often errors in them https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2016/08/08/form-13f-mis-filings/)

(Full Disclosure: I currently own shares of POAHY as of 5/25/21)

*Not financial advice, remember I am a stranger from the internet who may or may not have bad intentions, so always do your own DD.