| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/Criand |
0. Preface
This is your daily hit of hopium. In this case maybe a full rip of it since I see many people discouraged about 002 - but there is no need to worry. I want to show you that apes are winning and shorts are losing. You hold, you win. (But please note I am not a financial advisor. I don’t want you guys bitching at me if you YOLO it on deep OTM options expiring within 24 hours).
It is my belief that we do not need ANY of the new rules for the MOASS to occur. These rules were created for the purpose of preventing future stocks from ever being in the same position that GameStop is in. Think of it as they’re introducing rules to ensure that a January runup in another stock never occurs again post GameStop MOASS:
The DTCC will no longer have a ‘pool’ of collateral. Now the members will be hurting more and its easier to hit a margin call. High volatility up = 1 hour margin call from 801.
No more delaying FTDs. The DTCC will catch any attempt at this and shut it down. Volatility from FTDs can’t be suppressed = 1 hour margin call is easier to push through.
Positions will have much more visibility to the DTCC and risk always calculated. No more hiding from the margin calls during high volatility.
Again, all the bullets above are to prevent future stocks from squeezing. They never want this to happen again. Remember Tesla? It slow squeezed upward without any of these rules on a 15% SI. It’s going to happen to GameStop eventually.
All I’m saying is don’t get discouraged! Things can ignite literally any moment - and they will ignite, with or without the DTCC rules.
1. The Price Floor Is Moving Towards The Danger Zone.
On January 25th, 2021, Melvin received a total cash injection of $2.75 Billion. The price spiked to $159.18. So they were cutting it pretty close at that point - or at least, it was preemptive because Shitadel and Point72 knew things would spike a little bit more and this was to avoid the inevitable call from Marge. On another note, they absolutely hate the price of $350, which is where we saw the January and March peaks.
So it’s probably safe to assume that somewhere in the range of $160 and $350 is when our good friend Marge will give them a call. We can apply $160 here because that’s around when Melvin got bailed out by his buddies, and them bleeding money over time could eventually make $160 the margin call price point. They can’t continue this forever. And it shows. They are slowly but surely running out of time. How fast they are bleeding money? Eh, I don’t know. I saw some linear predictions of the margin call price and that prediction could very well be true or very close to being accurate, but I’ll leave it as a range for now instead of a “THIS IS THE PRICE TARGET WE’RE WAITING FOR!”
It’s literally just a war of attrition while the apes have infinite supply of time as we approach and enter what I like to call the DANGER ZONE. Kenny G and his friends are on that highway right now and have been ever since January.
Source: Ryan Cohen in Top Gun (1986)
You’ll start to notice something wonderful when you look at the charts starting from January and ignore the trend downward but rather look at the trend upward. Your doubts should erase from your mind when you notice it.
GME did a very quick decay from the January spike, and then a very slow decay from the March spike. Felt like it was going down in price, and the shorties were winning, huh? So I’m just wondering - how would you have felt if this was the chart we saw instead? What if the price decayed really quick in March again and then settled around $120?
Hm. I’d feel completely different. Give me that sweet sweet hopium hit. It would have no longer felt like it was going down in price but continuing to rise in price. The slow bleed from around $220 to $160 sucked - though trusting in the DD certainly helped. Now, imagine that SAME squeeze pattern on top of the arrows I drew. Let the price decay quickly in your mind. See what’s going on here?
I only needed to bust out one crayon 🖍️ from my mega 96-crayon pack for this chart. The price floor (blue line) is continuing to rise. Not only this, we’re just now entering the DANGER ZONE!! (purple box). While it appears we are on a downtrend from looking at the decay in price from $220 to $160, GME is in fact going to higher and higher floors on these smaller and smaller bursts up. (FTD loop theory is right boys and girls, but I don’t think it’s been ironed out yet).
GME Price Floor Rising Into The Danger Zone
Well well well. The price floor continues to rise in this dampening effect of price peaks and troughs. It’s not going down! It’s already going into the GODDAMN DANGER ZONE! They are growing weak at trying to suppress the price. Their efforts can’t contain it forever.
Now keep in mind, this is not to say that it is over once we’re in the purple box. It is to say that the longer we stay in the purple box, the closer and closer we get to the margin call price. I can hold out for it - can’t you? It’s almost time for you to pick out your favorite lambo model.
Anything can kick this over the edge and finally trigger the MOASS without 002 and 801. We’re already stable at the price that GME spiked when Melvin received their cash injection. It’s really just a matter of time at this point, because their attempts to kick the price back down are dampening.
The longer this drags out, the higher the price floor becomes, until it kicks off.
GameStop could find over 100% of their float voted and initiate a price spike, possibly through a recall.
The entire market could tip just one way out-of-favor of the shorts, causing their margin price to drop.
A long whale gamma squeeze can spike us into margin call territory long enough for the natural margin call (non-801) to occur.
GameStop can slowly bleed upward until the critical danger zone price is hit with no other catalysts.
Or perhaps, another FTD loop spike pushes GME over the edge. Let’s investigate this to try to iron out the missing pieces of the FTD loop theory.
2. Hello FTD Loop - Or Should I Say SI Report Loop
This isn’t T+21 or T+35 or anything. But I think it might finally paint the picture of why we have theories ranging from T+13 to T+21 to T+35, and everything in between. We definitely have a loopthat is occurring. And it’s most likely due to something called Short Interest Reporting from FINRA.
Short interest?! That’s two words we’re all very familiar with. What exactly is this?
FINRA requires firms to report short interest positions in all customer and proprietary accounts in all equity securities twice a month.
There’s three columns on that link. What are they:
Settlement Date: The date at which short interest positions must be determined.
Due Date: The date at which the report of the SI from the settlement date is due by.
Exchange Receipt Date: The date when FINRA finalizes the reports and delivers them.
Ah nice. So if you were a shortie in January and your SI% is well over 100% of the float, and the world thinks you haven’t covered because of the high SI%, then you might want to drop that SI% number down! If you maintain a low SI% for a long time, then the world will believe the squeeze is done for and you can claim that you’ve covered your positions. In order to drop your SI% that will be reported on the Receipt Date, you’d want to hide your short position before EOD of the Settlement Date.
You risk causing a mini squeeze right here. AKA the “Fake Squeeze” of January. But you MUST try it to shake off the holders. Dump it all. Pretend you covered. Hope that the apes sell.
Here’s a copy/paste of the dates for 2021. I’m going to only copy the ones through the start of June:
| Settlement Date | Due Date | Exchange Receipt Date |
|---|---|---|
| January 15 | January 20 | January 27 |
| January 29 | February 2 | February 9 |
| February 12 | February 17 | February 24 |
| February 26 | March 2 | March 9 |
| March 15 | March 17 | March 24 |
| March 31 | April 5 | April 12 |
| April 15 | April 19 | April 26 |
| April 30 | May 4 | May 11 |
| May 14 | May 18 | May 25 |
| May 28 | June 2 | June 9 |
| June 15 | June 17 | June 24 |
You could look at the Receipt Dates and say, “Hey! We spiked/dipped there! January 27, February 24, March 9, March 24! So the next spike would be May 11!”, but not necessarily. It’s interesting how some spikes occurred on a few of the receipt dates. I mean, the price certainly could spike again on May 11, but that’s probably going to be a coincidence once more. I’m more interested in the Settlement Date column.
Like I said earlier, it appears that they’ll want to stuff away their shorts on days up to and including the settlement date. When this happens, we get volatility in the price due to the ITM CALL + OTM PUT tricks they’ve been using. The price spikes up, then crashes down. Or vice-versa. And this is consistently happening. Here’s a few thoughts that I’m unsure of, but would like to propose:
It’s possible that a bunch of their shorts pour out after being hidden at critical dates, which result in massive ITM CALL and OTM PUT purchases prior to settlement dates, which consequently spikes/crashes the price in much larger movements. This could be why we’re seeing smaller movements (February 12, April 15, April 30) because fewer shorts are popping out and we’re waiting for a big pour out again.
They like to waste money on flash-crashing the price, probably through exercising a bunch of PUT ammo, while simultaneously suppressing the SI% and moving FTDs out once more with ITM CALL and OTM PUTs (February 26, March 15, March 31). This bleeds them money when spikes occur, and thus makes the Danger Zone ever closer with a slowly incrementing price floor.
The overlap of a bunch of their shorts pouring out and FTDs having to be reset occurs on these large movements (January 29, March 15, Some future date?)
This is why we see discrepancies between T+21 and T+35 and dates in-between. It’s not a cycle on those exact dates but rather any days before the settlement date.
To help visually, I plotted each settlement date on the lovely GameStop chart starting in January. You can see that prior to every single receipt date, some kind of volatility occurs. Even for February 12, I would argue that the spike/drop from February 5 to February 6 was one of these volatile movements, though ever slight of a movement like we’re seeing now.
So, what does this mean? Well, it’s not a date but more of a “watch for shit to go down close to or on these Settlement Dates (May 14, May 28, June 15, etc.)”. The next few Settlement Dates could continue to be dampening with smaller and smaller volatile movements. But they could also be a repeat of the January, February, or March spikes due to the possibility that a ton of shorts and FTDs will need to be brushed under the rug once more.
If GME spikes again due to this, they could attempt to flash crash the price once more.
If GME spikes again due to this, and they are unable to flash crash the price, they’ll be sitting higher in the DANGAH ZONE.
Regardless, we can assume the price floor will continue to rise. Perhaps since we are at a critical point here of $160 and it has been dampening to an ever smaller volatile swings around $160 - that we will see a huge burst again just like January, February, and March in order to maintain that ever-increasing price floor.
It sounds like I’m covering my ass because I said it could spike significantly or not at all lol. But I think there’s enough data points here to assume that volatility will always occur prior to the next SI Report Settlement Date. Whether or not it is a big jump depends entirely on the amount of shorts and FTDs they need to hide. When do those pour out? Is it a specific date? That’s what I’d like to find out.
Personally I still believe April 16, 2021 caused something big that is coming. You don’t just have all these banks + Shitadel working overtime day and night as of that date and not prior to it. If a big amount of shorts popped out of April 16 and they did not hide a lot of them prior to April 30 settlement, then the receipt date of those positions is May 11.
Note: Receipt date of May 11 does not imply a price spike will occur. This implies that the next SI% report could cause a SI% spike if April 16 shorts popped out and were unable to be hidden by April 30.
If the next SI% report date shows a spike in SI%, then its very possible that a portion of their hidden short position will be calculated into their risk, and the margin call price will go further down in the danger zone, making the tendies that much closer.
3. Conclusion
We’re reaching a critical point here, and its obvious that the shorters are going to lose. Apes will win. Don’t get discouraged. Anyone telling you you’re crazy might be right - that you’re crazy just in a general sense - but you’re not crazy for believing in GME.
Blast off from here with some hopium / TLDR:
Melvin received a $2.75B injection on the day GameStop spiked to $160. They have flash crashed the price from going above $350 every time. It’s probably safe to assume they are entering the Kenny Loggin’s DANGER ZONE as of this week which ranges from $160 to $350. This zone is where the margin call price theoretically lives.
The Danger Zone will continue to shift down while they bleed money attempting to suppress the price. The margin call is inevitable. All shorts must cover.
We consistently see volatile movement at some point in the week or week before a SI Report Settlement Date. EVERY single date has had this occur. The next settlement date is May 14.
This could be only a slight movement just like the past few Settlement Dates.
This could be a big movement due to April 16 from an overlap of a large amount of shorts having to be suppressed and FTDs shifted out (but who knows).
Every Settlement Date spike results in an ever higher price floor. The past few floors, starting Feb 26 through May 7 = $100, $120, $140, $150, $160. This brings us closer to, and into, the Danger Zone.
The Settlement Date following April 16 was on April 30. If a bunch of shorts spilled out from April 16 and they are no longer able to suppress them, then the Receipt Date on May 11 can result in a spike of SI%. Note: not price spike. SI% spike.
Also note to not day trade. Imagine you make the wrong mistake and the volatile movement ends up being the MOASS. See ya.
The end feels so close. We’ll see what the next few weeks bring. 😎