| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/HomeDepotHank69 |
****I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice****
2 edits below
Apes, I have something important to get off my mind. How do more people not talk about the fact that Flo Rida achieved a #1 song with “Whistle” that unapologetically gives instructions on how to suck cock all while his name is literally a pun about the state that he’s from. THAT IS FUCKING MADNESS. These kinds of things keep me up at night. That and the sound of my wife’s boyfriend plowing my wife. Would you all buy my mixtape? My rapper name would be Investment Hank. I’d make a song called “Whistleblower” which would be about abusively shorting stocks, crashing the market, and sucking dick…. oh wait, looks like Kenny beat me to it!
Well apes, in the words of Staples, that was:
Introduction
This post is going to be an update on my FTD cycle theory based on today’s price action. PLEASE see that post if you haven’t already or you will be hopelessly confused. In this post, I will be giving an update on the theory based on today’s price action (spoiler: it went well), I will be discussing where I think it’s going in the near future and longer future, I will answer some questions that I saw in the comments, and I will say some other random shit as well, so stay tuned.
As most of you probably already know, we had an incredibly nice jump today to almost $170! However, in post-market trading, we got up to $198, which makes more sense in the broader context of the theory. Note that because the second jump was after hours, both of these charts do not display it, so it actually should look even better.
What struck me by surprise today was the low volume. Yeah, price looked very good, but volume was still only 10M. Look at the volume chart and today’s volume really doesn’t look that comparable to the past start/end of FTD cycles. You could make the case that it’s decreasing every cycle and that this is all going according to plan; however, because of the massive price jump after hours, I don’t think that’s the case. I think that they haven’t finished covering and that either 1. today was not the actual start/end of the FTD cycle and that will be tomorrow or Wednesday, or 2. they are trying to space out covering so that the price doesn’t jump all at once. I don’t know which of these it is but either way, if I had to guess, it appears that it’s not over.
I know that I said that technicals don’t seem to apply to GME anymore but I cant help myself when I see a big juicy triangle like that. If you put after-hours trading into the view then we have broken out of the upper resistance by a long shot. We will need to see what happens tomorrow for confirmation though. Could this be a big bunch of nothing? Could this be the start of an insane bull run? Yes to both.
EDIT: uhhhhhhhhhhhhh asdfjkalsdfjaksl;dfjkl how the fuck did I forget to mention the fucking offering today? So GME completed their previously announced equity offering raising about half a Billy. That dilutes the stock by 5%. On any other stock, this should decrease the price substantially because the shares are fundamentally worth less money. HOWEVER, GME is up and it’s up big. IMO, this gives even more credence to the idea that the FTD cycle exists. When GME merely announced this possibility a few weeks ago on a non FTD cycle day, the stock plummeted, but when it actually happens, the stock gaps up? This is further proof IMO. Furthermore, it’s pretty suspicious that GME management chose today out of all days to do the raise. Are they in on this theory too? I find it plausible because they definitely have more information than we do on the shorting of their stock. Thankfully, now we don’t have to worry about management doing an offering in the middle of the rocket launch and shafting out tendies.
Hilarious update from TOS
Today, as I was watching GME ass ram the shorts, I got a notification from ThinkOrSwim and it made me piss my pants with laughter:
Are you kidding me? GME rises 10% from a fucking news article but falls 10% on news that Cohen became the daddy of the board? IMO this is further evidence of the GME FTD cycle theory because no company should go up 10% on a fucking article and 100% on the CFO being fired but go down 10% on news of its star player being put into power. TOS really needs to start reading my DD.
Looking ahead
Now I am going to give some guidance on where the price of GME could go in the very near future and a few weeks from now. First, it would be reasonable to expect, if you believe in the FTD cycle theory that the price of GME will be significantly higher than it is now in 19-21 days.
First, as I said above, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more action tomorrow especially considering the after-hours activity and lack of volume in regular trading hours. We could potentially see another jump tomorrow or Wednesday. If you look at the charts above, it appears that the price between the start and end of a cycle either tops or bottoms out about halfway through the cycle. Don’t run with this, however, because the in-between periods are extremely volatile and unpredictable, so that may just be a correlation. Another potential correlation is that in almost all of the start/end of the FTD cycle period, the day after the gap up is also significantly positive. It’s usually not as green as the previous day but it’s still a substantial increase, so we have a very real chance of seeing even more green this week.
I’m going to reemphasize that, as per the FTD cycle theory, it is still getting more and more painful/expensive for shorts to keep this up as every cycle passes by. It’s a slow bleed that will take some time but is working gradually.
Finally, I just wanted to reemphasize that just because today, happened the theory is not confirmed. Today was not evidence that the theory is correct, it was just not evidence that it’s incorrect. Last week, my theory was correct on Monday but was clearly wrong two days later. So I am emphasizing to do your own DD and research before making any decisions and to not take some tard from the internet’s opinions as facts.
Cyclists
I fucking love the influx of cyclist memes on the internet for past few weeks because I fucking hate cyclists always clogging up the road. This got me thinking. FTD cycle…. cyclists. OH MY GOD. The shorts are literally FTD cyclistist, which means that this meme is even more relevant to them:
Answering some comment questions and chats
I get so many comments and chats that it’s hard for me to respond, so I decided to address some of the ones that I thought were most relevant here:
Q: Why do FTDs keep decreasing?
A: It’s because shorts are masking them with synthetic longs (ITM calls) and are shorting ETFs containing GME. The FTD numbers that we’re getting do not make any sense whatsoever when considering the price action and volume.
Q: Have we mooned yet?
A: No. When GME moons it means that the FTD cycle has unraveled and shorts have been squeezed out. This will result in a violent, parabolic upwards movement. If you have to ask that question, the answer is probably no. You will know when it moons. The moon will probably come out of nowhere because it’s almost impossible to know when the shorts will decide to or be forced to cover.
Q: “Do we see more “GameStop is over! Here are the new stocks that Reddit is talking about!!!1!” types of news article headlines right BEFORE this 19 - 21 day cycle starting each time? My guess would be 1 - 2 days beforehand. Supportive evidence would show an influx of headlines like this before each cycle. Non-supportive evidence would show no influx. This would potentially show coercion and purposeful misinformation to shake as many paper hands before the reset has to happen.” - u/account030
A: I have actually noticed that at least on TOS, for the past few weeks the company news alerts are commonly relating to dogecoin. I think that they’re trying to hammer in the idea that GME is just a meme stock comparable to Doge (which is laughable). We’ve all also seen the Motley Fool articles and others that say “GEt OuT oF gAmEsToP RiGHt nOW.” These are just my observations, so I would definitely encourage others to look into this.
Q: “You draw a linear line on a log-scale chart. That means that the relationship is not linear, it is exponential. This is extremely important, I highly recommend you to update your post accordingly. Why is it relevant? Think back to the start of the Covid pandemic, when the first cases came in. Momentum was slow, some strange orange dude said “it will go away by itself”. But scientists warned: This development is exponential. When something is exponential, it means that it goes slow until it doesn’t. And what happened? After a few days or weeks of slow increase in case numbers, all of a sudden the pandemic blew up. Thousands, millions were infected in a frighteningly short timeframe. Why? Because the spread was exponential. Given your hypothesis holds true, the effect you are describing follows the same trend. When a trend looks linear on a log-scale axis, its rate of acceleration is proportional to its value. That means: Hedgies are fine, until they aren’t. Every FTD cycle they don’t cover, their position will be exponentially more expensive to hold.” - u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi
A: First of all, excellent fucking point. Wow, I didn’t even think of this! So yeah, the increase is exponential, which makes more sense because this cycle has been happening since the price was under $30 and now just a few cycles later it’s over 170! That might indicate that this takeoff could happen faster than we think. It could also give credence to the triangle actually being relevant.
Q: What about dark pools?
A: Yep, dark pools definitely could be distorting covering. Because of their very nature, it’s extremely hard for us to get much solid data about them. However, at this point, I don’t think that buying shares in a darkpool would be more effective than just buying synthetic longs (unless they do that in a darkpool too).
Q: You used to post on WSB, why are you here now?
A: I used to post on WSB because I wanted to get my message out to a bigger audience because I believe that I have good things to say. However, after my WSB posts kept getting removed, I got pissed off and came here more permanently. Having the freedom to discuss financial information while simultaneously making jokes about sucking cock and calling cyclists tards is the most liberating feeling I have ever felt in my life. In short: I like the sub.
Finally, thank you to u/karasuuchiha for commenting links to these posts about FTDs, I encourage you to check them out:
What happened during the T 21 in February and why T21 may not matter
Well apes, that’s it for today. Not sure when I’ll be back again with some more DD but I’ll try to make it relatively soon. My future DD will likely focus on trying to uncover actual FTD numbers or more information about the FTD cycle theory. Stay strong, apes.
****I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice****