| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/HomeDepotHank69 |
CRUCIAL UPDATE: If my theory is correct, I will be renaming this “the theory of hank”
EDIT 1: Looking similar to 1/13: low volume to start but no morning dip. Look to 10-11 for some action if we see any today.
EDIT 2:Â ooooooo look, new format. Uncle Hank will now be updating on the top instead of the bottom. Is this new format confirmation that the squeeze is imminent?
EDIT 3: Patiently waiting. Volume and price didn’t pickup until a little after 10am on 1/13 and price didn’t skyrocket until around 11am. So far, charts look pretty similar, nothing to tell us that it’s incorrect yet. Obviously charts wont look identical, so we still need to be patient for a potential bounce.
EDIT 4: Not going exactly as 1/13. Still have time tho. I’ve also been looking more into the FTD thing and it seems that 20-21 days after monthly expiry is when we see a jump, so tomorrow could still be in play as a jump day.
EDIT 5:Â Not looking great. Still not giving up hope tho. Going to do more research on FTDs
FINAL EDIT: Alright apes, I’m throwing in the towel. Doesn’t look like my theory on early January price similarities was correct. However, I am physically unable to give up on feeding my confirmation bias. SO, I will be continuing to do research, mostly geared towards FTDs, and will report back with my findings. Quick note tho: yesterday at 5pm, Cohen tweeted a pic of TED 2, maybe we can decipher T+2 from that and pray for tomorrow or Friday but don’t hold your breath. As always, stay strong, apes.
ONE LAST EDIT: Apes, the more I think about it, the more important I think the FTD cycle is. Everyone talks about it but it also seems that no one fully understands it or how it affects us. Why am I saying this? I just realized that on 2/24 when we came back from the dead, the media said that was because of the announcement of the ousting of the CFO. Really???? A more than 100% jump in a few hours becuase of a CFO? When Cohen was announced as god of the board, the stock went down! I think that we really need to research this FTD cycle shit cuz I think it’s deeper than any of us realize. Godspeed.
WADDUP PRIMATES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Uncle Hank has returned. I am BACK and I am JACKED to the TITS. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Yes, today is the day everybody I have been waiting for. No it’s not moon day. Today is “HomeDepotHank69 theory come true or not day.” Today, I woke up, plopped on the toilet, started blasting Lady Gaga and Megan Thee Stallion, wiped my ass with sandpaper, called the mailman to ensure he was still my wife’s boyfriend, and ate the dog food that my wife’s other boyfriend set out for me for breakfast today (I’m so lucky to have so many people who care about me). I will continue to make posts about this theory until I have evidence that it is incorrect (I will make a post indicating why it is wrong in that event) or when we are in tendietown. So no matter what, stay tuned for further posts in the coming days. I will also update this post and all future posts intraday. Without further adue, I present to you: Uncle Hank’s GME theory day of reckoning. I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice.
Quick Summary of theory:
If you have been following my posts for the past few days and are already familiar with my theory, please skip to the part where I say that ur sexy as hell (you are). Also make sure to read “Hank digs deeper” to see some new information that an ape brought to my attention about FTDs which adds more credence to my theory.
My theory rests on extensive research that I’ve done about GMEs past price and volume in order to attempt to predict where GME could be going in the future. To understand this theory in full please see:
My first post (this discusses the whole theory and has the most information)
My post from Monday (update of theory based on Monday price)
My post from yesterday (update based on yesterday’s price)
Again, if you do not read these, especially the first one, you will have absolutely no clue what I am talking about and you will be lost. To further emphasize, this is just my theory based on my research. Do not take this as fact. This could very well be a coincidence, and if I am wrong I will be sure to immediately update all of you. Make sure to do your own research and DD before making any investment decisions.
Here is the most bare-bones general idea of my theory: Along with many other similarities between current and past time frames and volume (again see my previous posts), GME seems to be fractally repeating its price pattern. I attribute this to the shorts being in a nasty FTD cycle. Here is a chart comparing 12/28-1/8 and 4/5 - 4/16:
Based on this and many other past price similarities, I have deduced that GME is currently repeating its early January pattern regarding price and volume. This theory has held true based on yesterday’s and the day before’s price and volume (again, see previous posts).
Here is the pattern in early January on a day view:
Everything to the left of the red line has happened so far according to the theory. If the theory is correct, today we should see the giant green candle. Again, do not take this as fact!
Quick recap of Monday and Tuesday:
If you’ve been following these posts, you already know that my theory has held true regarding the price action and volume of Monday and Tuesday. Again, because Tuesday was such a bland day, it doesn’t confirm that the theory is correct, it simply doesn’t confirm that it’s incorrect. Here they are: Monday:
1/11:
Yesterday:
1/12:
If you’ve already read my previous posts, start here (ur sexy as hell):
Alright, so here we are, the day of reckoning. As with any theory, if today is right, the theory is not confirmed. However, because of the sheer anomaly in price and volume that 1/13 was, if today has similar action as that day, it is a lot of confirmation that the theory may be true. As I have said before, correlations do not confirm theories, they simply don’t not confirm them; however, a correlation in price and volume as much of an anomolly as 1/13 is would definitely add some serious credence.
If the price action is not similar and the correlation is invalidated, I will make a post stating that, so no apes are left astray. So, tomorrow expect a post that is one of these two:
So, now for Today
The first picture is the price and volume of 1/13. The second picture is 1/13 in comparison to previous days (1/13 is immediately to the right of the red line):
So, as you can see, today, for the theory to hold, there must be an enormous increase in both volume and price that holds, for the most part, throughout the day. Interestingly, on 1/13, there was no significant volume or price action during the premarket or directly at market open. The giant jump happened between 10-12ish in the morning. Most importantly, the price held throughout the rest of the day above VWAP and IV did not fall significantly. For the theory to be true, we should look to see a similar pattern. If the price goes up and volume goes up, I will not be convinced of this theory completely unless the increase in volume and price are monumental similar to 1/13 (i.e. a simply having a positive price and higher volume is not enough, we are looking for a huge jump in both).
If today is similar to 1/13, then I am going to go into full tard mode with my next post because I think that today would provide confirmation that my theory could be correct. Thus, if today pans out as my theory says it should, then I will be making a GIANT DD about where GME could be going in the future based on my theory and adding some more juicy shit about FTDs below. However, if my theory does not pan out, I will be quick to let all you know. I also want to make it clear that if today comes true, IT IS NOT THE MOON, not even close. Today is simply a small step towards the moon. Today is HomeDepotHank69 theory come true or not day, not GME moon day. For context, here is 1/13 on a day scale compared to the first squeeze:
Again, this is just a theory, do not take it as fact, and I will be sure to update this continually and say if I believe the theory has been disproven. If this does come true, however, I’d suggest buying vaseline or some form of lotion immediately because I will be buying the entire world’s supply of it as I make my most extensive DD yet based on this theory. As always, I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Stay strong, apes. REMEMBER TO SEE “HANK DIGS DEEPER” BELOW.
Random note from Hank:
As a holder whose calls have taken an absolute beating recently from sideways/down movement and IV crushes, I often find myself doubting if GME will go up again, as I’m sure many of you have. However, I always think about 3 things. First, DFV doubled down recently. Second, I didn’t even think that the rise after the first squeeze was possible but it happened and since then GME has done WAYYYYYY more to justify a higher price. Third, all of the original apes who bought GME below $20 before the media storm and widespread reddit support held in the face of more FUD than we’ve ever experienced. THese sentiments keep my hands diamond. Godspeed, apes.
HANK DIGS DEEPER
FTD Cycle adding to my theory
Apes, as I said yesterday, if this theory is correct (again don’t take it as fact), then I will be making an autist level 4billion DD about my theory, where we are going, and some more goodies. But for now, here is some more information that I have gathered to backup my theory.
In yesterday’s post u/nuulss made an excellent comment where he mentioned that tomorrow was 21 days after the march monthly options expire (the March option prediction/theory is from pixel). In his comment, this user called it T+21, which got me thinking ALOT. A few weeks/months ago I read a god-tier DD about the FTD squeeze. Sadly I couldn’t find it. Apes, I shit you not when I say I scoured reddit for over an hour looking for this one fucking website and I found it. So please, please read this link because this is some of the best DD that I have ever seen in my life and you will definitely learn something from it.
https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/DD/GME/og/GMEv14.pdf
The reason why u/nuulss comment got me so interested is because my original thesis is that GME repeats its patterns because of this FTD cycle. Before seeing this comment, I tried to find some similarities between price jumps and falls (as in how many days are in between them), but I couldn’t find anything. WELL, thanks to this user, some more light has been shed on that. If my theory is confirmed tomorrow, I will be doing an extensive DD covering this topic, but for now I’ll just give you a small glimpse.
Ok, so first here is SEC regulation SHO, which discusses shorting, naked shorting, and FTDs:
https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
Essentially, what I’ve gathered from this about FTDs is that brokers/MMs have a certain number of days to resolve a FTD (which they can do with another borrowed share, which is why we’re in this mess). The key numbers are T+2, T+3, T+5, T+6, T+13. T refers to the day you executed, so just think of it as day you shorted + x days later. There are certain exceptions for market making activity as well, which I am having trouble understanding (ape brain lmao). However, the comment was about T+21, which I have not seen anything about. If anyone has information on this please let me know (but please don’t just add 13+6+2 and say “LoOk uNcLe HaNk i sOlVeD tHe PuZzLe”). Again, this is just a rough outline of the theory that I will probably post about in the future.
Here are the expiration dates for recent monthly options (using monthly becuase they have the most volume and OI). Here the date is T + X where X is the number of days after T. I looked at each of these dates on the daily chart and counted how many days until there was a SIGNIFICANT spike. Here are my findings. Again, this is only preliminary and I will most likely be making a much more expansive DD about this in the future:
Sept. 18th + 13 days later = spike from $9 to $13 in a single day
Oct. 16th + 21 days later = spike from about 10.50 to 12.50 and then a runup the next few days
Nov. 20th + 21 days later = spike from 16 to 20 in a single day
Dec. 18th + 21 days later = spike from 40ish to 65ish in a single day
Jan. 15th - you can’t really find one here because of the squeeze, but I’m guessing that this played a big role in increasing the height of the squeeze. I’ll do more research on this in my later DD.
Feb. 19th + 13 days later = the day in march we saw it get all the way up to $350
Mar. 19th + 21 days = LITERALLY TODAY
When I saw this my jaw dropped. Every single jump is either T + 21 or T+13. 13 makes perfect sense as per the DD I linked above, but I don’t understand the 21 days thing and it’s not like 21 days is an anomaly, it’s on there every time except for 2 times. Anther T to keep in mind is 26. Why? MM have 13 days to deliver but can deliver with a loaned share or synthetic long (maybe, not sure about that last one), so 13 + 13 = 26. I haven’t looked deep enough to see if 26 is significant but will update if I do.
Thanks again to u/nuulss for pointing this out because I personally think that it’s huge. Even if my prediction about price being similar is dead wrong, I will be looking into the FTD cycle as this could give us a good understanding of what days are the best to buy. We already know what days are the best days to hodl, EVERYDAY. As I said before this is just me scratching the surface. I will dig very deep tomorrow if my prediction comes true. Well, let’s face it, I’m addicted to this shit and will be digging deeper regardless.
So, if anyone can find any more connections from the settlement dates in that DD to the past price action of GME, I would love to hear your thoughts. My posts usually get a lot of comments, so I would encourage you to message me if you have something serious. Godspeed, apes. I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice.
I will be updating this as much as possible today.