Author | Source |
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u/djk934 |
Reviewing 13F-HR Forms is shit. Let’s get that outta the way. But lots of good info hidden there. I flaired this as DD only because looking through these made me want to pull out my eyes.
To preface, I am a Canadian ape and this is my first attempt at any type of DD, especially related to American stocks. In fact, I don’t think I’ve made a Reddit post before, if I have it was years ago. I apologize in advance for lack of emojis and if formatting sucks. Regardless, y’all have some weird shit going on in your markets. I figured I would throw this out there anyways.
TLDR
The DTCC is the Dad of the Market now.
My intuition is that given what the fines are for misreporting data, it’d wouldn’t be surprising to me AT ALL if much of the newer data here was doctored since the stakes are high. Can this be proven? Nope. Not unless Shitadel lowers the drawbridge. However, if I was any of these companies looking at losing billions and the fine was a few million dollars, I’d sure as hell misreport the data to everyone I could.
Given what has been seen in the markets, especially with how overly shorted Gamestop is (confirmed on a fucking Bloomberg terminal no less), my argument here is that the SEC previously got doctored data delivered to them by each of these groups that is not suspicious enough for the SEC to conclusively act on, it’s giving them an easy out to just say “business as usual”. They don’t collect Bloomberg terminal data apparently. (Let alone that there’s a lot of other things they should be acting on, but I can’t email your politicians to fix it so…). After the kids started lying to the SEC, the DTCC decided to change the rules (i.e they had to step in to actually deal with the bad children), since it’s clear to them the SEC will do nothing and the hedgies are attempting to torpedo the market as they thrash around in their death throes.
TLDR Over.
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE, I steal crayons from schoolchildren for fun.
EDIT: Adding more detailed disclaimer as per advice. 1) This is not financial advice, I am not a registered broker, and this is for entertainment purposes only. 2) Past performance does not equal future returns, and all equity investments entail risk. 3) The views expressed are the views of the author, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author. 4) The views expressed are solely the authors approach to investing in this specific equity.
DO WHATEVER YOU WANT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY INCLUDING BUY AND HODL OR HOOKERS AND BLOW OR DELUXE CRAYON KITS.
INSERT MOON ROCKETS AND SUCH. I DON’T KNOW HOW TO DO EMOJIS. Fuck. Anyways.
Ever wondered what the hell Shitadel/Melvin/Susquehanna actually own? Lucky for you, that’s the 13F-HR form! Turns out Citadel Advisors LLC, Melvin Capital Management and Susquehanna International Group file these things to the SEC (and there are so many different tentacles of Shitadel it’s unbelievable). Whether they tell the truth on them is a different story. I am much more suspicious of filings into 2021 though…
Well outside of the fact that the SEC is gutless, I wondered if the SEC can’t really do anything because what’s been reported to them isn’t actionable so it makes it easier for them to just cop out with a “nothing to see here folks…” Here’s what I used to do this - https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/# - it gives you a lot of insight into the OTHER holdings of each company as well. It’d be interesting to compare this against news coverage and who owns those places but that’s a different thing. Now into the data we can grab.
We start with the big castle place and Ken Griffty.
For the calls and puts - divide each of the numbers by 100 to get number of contracts, I read more closely into the 13F and they have an SH abbreviation here which I believe means shares.
Citadel Advisors LLC Positions in GME
February 14, 2020
192,060 Shares
640,000 Calls
342,300 Puts
May 15, 2020
94,299 Shares
991,700 Calls
909,600 Puts
August 14, 2020
0 Shares
1,711,100 Calls
1,520,900 Puts
November 16, 2020 Filing is unavailable… at least at first glance. After clicking into the filings further to do more digging, on November 16, 2020 Citadel Advisors LCC appears to own. Oh yeah, open document doesn’t work, but Open Filing seems to allow access to peek closer.
111,805 shares
2 million Calls
2.57 million Puts
February 16, 2021 Filing is unavailable… at least at first glance. After clicking into the filings further to do more digging, on February 16, 2021 Citadel Advisors LCC appears to own. Oh yeah, open document doesn’t work, but Open Filing seems to allow access to peek closer.
217,132 shares
1.7 million Calls
2.2 million puts
What can we deduce here?
Citadel was decreasing their holdings of Gamestop stock at the same time they were increasing their use of options throughout 2020. Suddenly they began acquiring shares again come the later part of the year after Ryan Cohen bought in. Maybe getting a bit worried about their strategy to bankrupt the company not paying off, so made it look like they were collecting some shares to mitigate the damage of their increased use of options
Then there’s our friend Melvin who’s gonna help Shitadel make apes rich. Ugh, I feel legitimately bad for people actually named Melvin after all of this. Poor bastards. Anyways…
For the calls and puts - divide each of the numbers by 100 to get number of contracts, I read more closely into the 13F and they have an SH abbreviation here which I believe means shares.
Melvin Capital Management LP Positions in GME
February 14, 2020
4 million puts
No shares or calls
May 15, 2020
2.8 million puts
No shares or calls
August 14, 2020
3.4 million puts
No shares or calls
On November 16, 2020
5.4 million puts
No shares or calls
On February 16, 2021
6 million puts
No shares or calls
What can we deduce here?
Melvin has been increasing puts since the 2nd quarter of 2020. But they never owned shares or calls during the end of any quarter in 2020 or 2021.
And lastly there is SUSquehanna. Or Suck Me Hanna as I like to refer to them in my head. They also want to help Shitadel and Melvin make apes rich.
For the calls and puts - divide each of the numbers by 100 to get number of contracts, I read more closely into the 13F and they have an SH abbreviation here which I believe means shares.
Susquehanna International Group’s Positions in GME
May 15, 2020
819,736 Shares
1.9 million Calls
1.29 million Puts
August 14, 2020
1.5 million Shares
1.34 million Calls
1.71 million Puts
November 16, 2020
4.4 million Shares
697,700 Calls
2.8 million Puts
February 16, 2021
2.49 million Shares
1.84 million Calls
4.88 million Puts
March 26, 2021
2.49 million Shares
1.84 million Calls
4.88 million Puts
What can we deduce from this?
Susquehanna increases their Put Options throughout 2020. Rest of it is pretty meh.
What can we deduce from all three groups?
The positions reported here don’t look like anything out of the ordinary. There are other companies suspected of shorting Gamestop with similar “reasonable belief” positions that they could find shares to cover their holdings. I also looked up a couple of others and the reported data seems pretty meh, check it out yourself but fair warning you’ll want to pull out your eyeballs.
From this data though, one major thing seems to stand out for me. After August 14th, neither Melvin nor Shitadel owned any shares, though Shitadel acquired some later on (supposedly). In fact, according to these reports Melvin didn’t own any shares even AFTER the end of January. Melvin is naked in the dark with regards to their options on Gamestop at the end of filings after August. Susquehanna appears to have some shares on paper but appear to be holding some longer calls and puts on GME at this time. However, given what is REPORTED here none of these positions really look that suspicious and even though some of the positions are naked, it’s reasonable to believe that they could find shares in the numbers indicated here, which is why I actually believe it’s been deliberately misreported to the SEC. With billions on the line vs. millions in a fine, I mean I’d lie to my dad too. Sadly for the companies, the SEC isn’t their dad anymore. The DTCC is in charge now.
Why would the DTCC change the rules now?
The DTCC rule changes (filed earlier than this but shit actually started happening/moving after the February SEC filings) seem to support that they think that something fishy is going on with these companies reporting to the SEC (I mean, fucking duh). Though, the SEC really haven’t been given enough info to do anything with, the numbers that were reported IN THESE FILINGS don’t look that bad. (leaving out the fact that the SEC is toothless and most of these cucks want to work for the hedge funds anyways) To be blunt, I think the SEC needs to grow a sack and do their job, but based on what they’ve been given, it’s easy to roll over and let Shitadel and friends fuck over regular folks so they might get a job there later.
Personally, I think that since the DTCC can see the back end better than the SEC they effectively shit themselves when they did see the positions, compared it against the reported data to the SEC and realized that even though they were gonna take it in the ass over this, they needed to be the ones to take steps to curtail what is happening. They needed to be the DAD since the children have gotten more brazen and out of control than ever before. Shitadel and friends got caught touching their bananas in a playground, then lied to Daddy SEC about it. They got a new Daddy (the DTCC) now. Dad The Crayon Controller. For us apes, we just wait and see if the DTCC has the nutsack to enforce their own rules and do anything about it.
For myself, I buy and hodl so I go to moon and get bananas from moon banana tree when real positions get revealed.
For you, DO WHATEVER THE FUCK YOU WANT TO WITH YOUR MONEY. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
MAJOR EDIT: Fixed a couple typos. Also just read the transcript of Gabe Plotkin’s Congress Testimony again. He indicated that “Melvin started closing out its position in Gamestop at a loss” on page 2 of the written testimony. It appears from the SEC Filings that they increased the number of puts though between November and February - that doesn’t seem like closing out a position in my books. (https://docs.house.gov/meetings/BA/BA00/20210218/111207/HHRG-117-BA00-Wstate-PlotkinG-20210218.pdf) Looking like Gabey boy might’ve lied to Congress OR the SEC filings from Melvin are bullshit, maybe both.
MAJOR EDIT 2: I just reviewed the values in the 13F filings, Melvin’s position increased 600,000 puts to change from a 55 million dollar position to a 113 million dollar position. Again, that doesn’t seem like winding down a position and the share price was $12.06 vs. $49.51 between the two dates. Even accounting for the share price difference here related to the value of the options, it doesn’t seem to add up for me.
EDIT 3: I don’t know what awards do but I think they cost money, if it helps more people see this, then I appreciate the support, this post has a 99% upvote rating as of this edit but has been bouncing up and down like crazy all day. Otherwise please spend your coin on what needs to be done!
Edit 4: u/TakingOffFriday let me know that there’s a slight error in the dates - the dates I used are the dates that things were filed to the SEC and represent when the SEC learned of the position (it’s self-reported). The number of calls/puts is for periods ending as of 12/31, 3/31, 6/30 and 9/30 of their respective years. I hope I credited them right. Also they led me back to looking at the 13F’s again, for the calls and puts - divide each of the numbers by 100 to get number of contracts, I read more closely into the 13F and they have an SH abbreviation here which I believe means shares. Please chime in on this if it is incorrect. We want the best information possible.
MAJOR EDIT 5: Could be some grey areas depending on whether Gabe lied or not as SEC Filing is on the same day as the testimony, but the positions correspond to previous quarters ending on 9/30 and 12/31. I’m not a lawyer, so that’ll be up to more wrinkly people than me. No way to know for sure until the next filing and even then I don’t think I will trust the numbers filed, given how quickly after the SEC Filing occurred the DTCC suddenly became more active on proposals that have been lying around for awhile and started getting shit done.
EDIT 6: updated a disclaimer as this post is getting bigger than I anticipated and bolded a section.
Edit 7: Fixed a section for more clarity.
STILL NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Remember that I collect the crayons from schoolchildren to snack on.