| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/Cuttingwater_ |
Hello my fellow Apes ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ,
For anyone with any lingering doubts about GME price being getting manipulated prepare to have your ๐ฆ๐ง ๐คฏ.
I am going to show some fairly definitive proof, using a measure calledย โOn-Balance Volumeโย which will show that all the downward price pressure has been with EXTREMELY minimal volumes.
You apes donโt only have ๐โ BUT ARE ALSO BUYING THE DIPS because total net buying volume has net INCRASED since January!
For me personally, this was the final piece of evidence I needed to feel certain about where this stock is going. ๐๐๐
โโโ-ย BOILERPLATE:
I still know nothing, I canโt do math good. PLEASE donโt listen to me! Obligatory ๐๐๐
TLDR: Price drop from Jan 29 to Feb 4 was done with almost no net negative buying pressure (very low share volumes). Proof that ๐ฆ are๐โ AND are buying the dips! Overall positive buying pressure has only increased since January. ๐โ๐๐๐
โโโ- On Balance Volume (OBV)
Before I ๐คฏ your mind, here is whatย OBV (On-Balance Volume)ย is all about:
On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator, adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days.
On Balance Volume (OBV) line is simply a running total of positive and negative volume. A periodโs volume is positive when the close is above the prior close and is negative when the close is below the prior close.
The absolute number of the OBV does not matter, what does is the relative height of the line over time.
Rising OBV reflects positive volume pressure that can lead to higher prices.ย Conversely, falling OBV reflects negative volume pressure that can foreshadow lower prices.
This means, that if we see a significant decline in share price, we should also see a decrease in OBV line at a similar magnitude.
For my fellow ๐ค, here is the equation:
โโโ- Examples of share price following OBV
Below I have 5 examples from other companies (AMD, Tesla, Cineplex, Royal Caribbean, Canopy) and all of them have OBV lines that very nicely go along with the share price.
Note: All data from TradingView (awesome app btw) and Period set to 1 day.
This is what the relationship between OBV and price should look like.ย In fact, the whole purpose of the OBV is that it actually can show when a price is about to move in a certain direction as you can see the spikes in OBV are all 1 to 2 periods before the share spikes.
โโโ- GME: When Share price doesnโt follow OBV
And now letโs get to GME.
Link to my TradingView so you can see the data live
Here you can see huge positive buy pressure from Jan 12 to 27, increasing by 462% with a share price increase of $305 (VWAP - volume weighted average price).
Then the share price dropped by $264 (80%) from January 29 to Feb 4. If this was a real drop (i.e. people were actually selling their shares), we would expect a relative decrease in the buying pressure, however we only see it go down by 9%! ๐คฃ๐คฃ
When GME spiked in February, it actually gained more total positive buying pressure and surpassed the previous high point set on January 27!
It has only gone higher since.ย On March 10 & 12, we were at the highest level, 25% higher than Januaryย and even today, we are still 17% higher. This is also important because it showed that not much extra buy pressure was required to bring the price up from $40 to $300
THIS AS CLOSE AS YOU WILL GET TO PROOF OF ๐โ! Almost no one actually sold during this period, or we would have seen a huge increase in negative buy pressure.ย If you just looked at the OBV, you would think that the stock price should be around $450-500
Theย red line is what I think the OBV SHOULD look like for the current stock price.
Note: This observations is true if you set the period to 1 week, 1 day, 4 hours, 3 hours, 2 hours and 1 hour
โโโ-ย TLDR
TLDR: Price drop from Jan 29 to Feb 4 was done with almost no net negative buying pressure (very low share volumes). Proof that ๐ฆ are๐โ AND are buying the dips! Overall positive buying pressure has only increased since January. ๐โ๐๐๐
Stake:ย Shares in GME
This is an update to my previous post on OBV and I have had several people ask for an update.
OMG Apes! You did it:
