Author: u/WardenElite
This is not financial nor investment advice. These are ideas and opinions for information purposes only.
This post will read bottom to top. It’s easier for people to refresh the page and see edits at the top
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Historical support and resistance levels for reference today:
152.5, 172, 182, 197.5, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 230, 234, 243, 250, 253, 256.5
172 diagonal support
Important reminder, do not day trade this stock. It will seem tempting to sell high and buy the dip. This sucks ass. This resets FTDs and you are literally handing over shares to Melvin and friends. As a day trader myself, in the day trading community, we all respect this stock and make a special exception not to day trade this.
Remember, the squeeze won’t wait for you. You sell at the wrong time and you will miss the chance of a lifetime. When this goes up, it goes up fast and you will be left chasing the huge green candlesticks.
Edit 50 4:16PM:
As a side note before I leave. I would like to say that one should not expect anything magical to happen during Quad Witching day. I have been through two of these in the past and frankly…. nothing really happens. GME may be an exception as whales can use that as an opportunity to gain leverage over the shorts, but again, this is a hypothetical maybe.
Edit 49 4:08PM:
Just a reminder I will be gone tomorrow! Will be on a Spring Break trip.
Overall today was mostly sideways, but due to a lack of buying volume, we sagged and ended lower. My projects for tomorrow is a downtrend because of A) no SSR and B) no immediate catalysts. Hang in tight my fellow apes. I am very much looking forward to the earnings call!
Edit 48 3:59PM:
Seeing a bit of a push before market close. We ended above the 209 support. Overall today was more of a downtrend. We need a catalyst to reignite the upwards trend.
Edit 47 3:55PM:
Closing low for the day, around 205 support.
Edit 46 3:29PM:
Seeing some dips. As to be expected. S&P is overextended. It may continue to dip and amplify GME’s dips.
Edit 45 3:18PM:
From a macro point of view, we’re climbing at a slightly higher slope than the 172 diagonal.
Still bullish. Just slow and boring kinda bullish.
Edit 44 3:02PM:
Super boring day so far. I wonder what power hour has in store for us.
Edit 43 2:24PM:
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
Firstly, inflation will remain averaged 2% for the long term, easing inflation fears. They will let it run moderately above 2%, but it will still average 2%. There’s some info about rates and debt, but my brain hurts from reading all these charts.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210317.pdf
Long story short, market won’t blow up just yet.
Because GME is already green, HFTs will amplify downtrends much more than uptrends. This is why GME is dipping now in conjunctions with the S&P dipping a tiny bit.
Edit 42 2:13PM:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210317a.htm
Ahhhh that’s why. Let me summarize this in edit 43.
Edit 41 2:12PM:
Wall Street knows something that we don’t; or maybe I just missed an important piece of news. Whole market going up. Anyone know why?
Edit 40 2:05PM:
Yo wtf is happening to the S&P lol.
Edit 39 2:03PM:
Thanks everyone for the link!
Edit 38 1:52PM:
I’m going on a little spring break trip Thursday. I probably won’t make a post tomorrow but I will check the chart and if anything crazy happens, I’ll make a small post about it.
Edit 37 1:46PM:
Anyone got a link to the JPow stream? It’s worth tuning into. It seems the entire market is waiting for the 2pm hearing before making any moves. If the broader market falls during the hearing, it will drag GME down with it. Some possible support levels we might hit are 214.5, 211.5, 209, and 204. Can it go lower? Possibly. Let’s stay tuned.
Edit 36 1:30PM:
Today has been really solid consolidation. Possibly setting the stage for the next leg of an uptrend tomorrow? We won’t have SSR tomorrow though so shorts may try to suppress any kind of uptrend.
Edit 35 1:28PM:
Volume not picking up. RSI in the blue, near underbought. I believe we can expect a sideways trend for now.
Edit 34 1:23PM:
This congressional hearing is just a farce. They have not once delved deeply into the blatant naked shorting issues. I literally do not care about payment for order flow anymore. Please talk about the important issues congress.
Edit 33 1:21PM:
Volume extremely low. The uptrend will struggle to form. Remember the uptrend part forms when decent volume kicks in.
Edit 32 1:10PM:
If I was congress, I would hire some experts to compile some DD on payment for order flow and distribute slides to the public as well as congress. This whole hearing format is ineffective in my opinion.
I prefer swift decision making. Do preplanning and make a bunch of DD –> setup a meeting to analyze the DD and have Shitadel and friends at the meeting to verify the DD –> write some good ass legislation ASAP to address the problems –> sign the legislation
Edit 31 1:05PM:
Here is the link to the negative beta debunk thread.
I believe that the negative beta is partially a result of shorts liquidating their overvalued tech stocks. This implies they were using the extra cash as added margin so they can increase their short positions. Furthermore, I believe they spent some of that cash on options like Puts to amplify the shorts. Conversions are a valid candidate strategy they might have spent cash on.
Also a little bit about the cup and handle. No it does not have to form the uptrend that completes the pattern. This only happens when the stock is bullish. I personally believe it is bullish, but what I believe does not equate to what the market wants to do.
Edit 30 12:59PM:
Handle has formed. Couple comments about cup and handle. Please don’t spam this in r/GME ”ooooooh cup and handle guys!!!!”. It’s a valid pattern at the minute time scale. Just don’t overhype it.
Why does the cup and handle form? Simple. The left part of the cup is from short selling pressure. However the market wants to go up. So the right half of the cup forms from the true nature of the market.
The handle represents a period of pause, when people take a breather before they continue buying. The ending uptrend is the final rally to complete the pattern. It’s a pattern that simplifies how market psychology and dynamics works.
Edit 29 12:38PM:
A couple comments about Beta. I feel like the recent thread trying to debunk is partially correct. Yes most of the negative value is from that one large spike opposing the down market that month. However, I think they discount the recent activity of stock. On many many many days, this stock directly inverted the S&P premarket but traded in correlation to the S&P. I think the net effect is still a negative beta. I do not believe negative beta is an invalid statistic to use for understanding GME; I think it is very valid.
Edit 28 12:04PM:
Cup and handle?
Edit 27 11:57AM:
Ascending channel.
Edit 26 11:41AM:
Microsqueezes happen when shorts want to control the price ceiling to reduce losses. Typically, buying pressure is strong enough such that the price will not crash right after leading to this camel back hump pattern. It could happen with GME.
Edit 25 11:39AM:
More sideways trading for the day.
Edit 24 11:14AM:
I have read the PDF slides rensole posted about. https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/discord/DD/GMEv10.pdf
I like it. I think it is thorough and well researched. Furthermore I had my own suspicion that when this squeezes, we’ll see micro squeezes.
I cannot verify all the statements in the PDF, but I can tell that this was written by someone who clearly knows how to put together a research document. In my opinion, I believe GME is acting very strangely recently, and that the only cause for this behavior is indeed, the overwhelming pressure built from naked and synthetic shorting as well as FTDs. One of my research buddies on Reddit who I think is literally autstic, (I love autstic people, father burry where you at?), had a high suspicion of the FTD pressure building up in GME. Eventually, this spring will have to uncoil.
Edit 23 11:07AM:
Volume nonexistant. Zzz. I’m gonna go get lunch. Be back later. Should see some more sideways or sagging trading.
Edit 22 11:03AM:
YES SYNTHETIC SHORTING THANK YOU. They’ve been synthetically shorting the shit out of GME.
Edit 21 11:01AM:
Monke brain endorphins.
Edit 20 10:44AM:
Perhaps this guy wants to help us discover the true price of GME. ahem* 100k a share.
Edit 19 10:43AM:
Fairytale my ass. As if we were trying to create a scapegoat out of big institutions for our losses. They literally cause our losses.
Edit 18 10:38AM:
This guy preaches. Our markets are a wealth extraction mechanism for the few. That is truth. This market is rigged.
Edit 17 10:36AM:
Sagging consolidation, low volume.
Edit 16 10:22AM:
Given how boring the price action is right now, I’ll tell a little story. My neighbor does high frequency trading. He’s really a great guy. Super smart. Hardworking. It’s a tough business but very profitable. He told me once about how the technology works. His particular specialty was in pair trading. Basically, ever notice how two stocks trade with the exact same trend? Well basically sometimes they diverge. His algorithm was a machine learning algorithm that spots these divergences, and then buys the downtrend stock and shorts the uptrend stock in the expectation that these two stocks will converge again. It’s a really brilliant algorithm and not exactly harmful to retailers. However, not all algorithms are created equal.
Some algorithms try to scalp cents at a time and beat retailers. Just when you want to buy, payment for order flow can inform bots ahead of time, and those bots will buy ahead of you. That’s how they make their money and allow for commission free trading. There’s other algorithms like Buy the New Low (very old and retired algorithm) that will buy the dips and squeeze out short sellers. The whole point of HFT is to A) beat other HFTs, and B) make retail bag holders.
Where do you think Wall Street gets their money from? That’s right, from retail investors. They make you guys bag holders and they take the profits.
Edit 15 10:16AM:
My neighbor does high frequency trading. Trust me. It ain’t good for retailers like us.
Edit 14 10:12AM:
tEcHnOlOgY!!!
Edit 13 10:04AM:
Edit 12 9:59AM:
Please upvote if you enjoy the commentary!
Gotta love it when congress people say “gamestock stock”. I fondly remember that old guy who accidentally forgot to mute his mic and was yelling at Ken Griffin “wHy ArE yOu HeRe!!!”
Edit 11 9:56AM:
Low volume btw. Only 876k at first minute of market open. We’ll probably not see any crazy action today.
Edit 10 9:54AM:
Second hearing!! I’m gonna tune in. Will post fewer edits for now, but will definitely let you guys know if anything crazy happens with the graph.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imRzHXRq80I&ab_channel=U.S.HouseCommitteeonFinancialServices
Edit 9 9:52AM:
Ascending channel.
Edit 8 9:50AM:
It’s failed to crawl all the way to 234; not enough buying pressure. I’m putting a brand new resistance at 230.
Edit 7 9:46AM:
Testing new highs.
Edit 6 9:42AM:
B it is.
Edit 5 9:39AM:
Edit 4 9:35AM:
We’re seeing some consolidation. Nothing too interesting. Seems like 10 year bond yields are rising again.
We were on a corrective phase yesterday resulting in S&P climbing, but today, we’re on our course up again. The broader market is very sensitive with bond yields.
Edit 3 9:32AM:
I’ll let the graph play out for around 10 minutes. I’m currently doing a bit of research on the broader market. Be right back.
Edit 2 9:31AM:
2 candidate rally points. Let’s see where we go.
Edit 1 9:27AM:
S&P 500 down today. Hmmm GME negative beta means GME go BRRRRRrrrrr? Possible!
Begin Reading Here
Goooooooooooooood morning my fellow apes!
It’s your resident crayon artist Warden.
I heard beta is kinda hot recently eh? I tell my friends that GME is a great hedge against a market crash. Why? Because it’s negative beta. It’s an inversely correlated asset. When the market goes down, GME typically goes up.
I believe only a heavy short position can cause GME to have negative beta. I’ve watched this stock every single day from 9:30am to 4:00pm and I can tell you, never in my 2+ years of trading have I see a stock act like GME before. I have a gut feeling this stock really wants to go up.
Melvin and friends are trying their hardest to, in Uncle Bruce’s words, “make this stock look awful”. Too bad we’re just a bunch of apes who really like the stock.
If you look through the illusion of the short attacks, I think this stock looks really good. I just really like the stock.
Recap of yesterday
The price action yesterday reaffirmed my bullish thesis on the stock’s short term squeeze potential. Not only did it strongly reject and bounce off the 172 diagonal support, it did this at a near 90 degree angle. This happened for 2 reasons. 1) the volume was low and the downwards momentum was weak and fake. 2) the stock naturally wants to go up. Especially when SSR turned on, it’s obvious what will happen when the shorts can’t hammer it constantly.
Shorts go away. GME goes up. Simple.
Long term trends
Yes I believe that even though this downtrend was artificially created by short attacks, we may be at the handle of a cup and handle pattern. Thank you u/MozerfuckerJones for this image.
Typically this pattern forms after at least 6-7 weeks. The beginning of the cup results from an overbought stock that falls and consolidates. The other half of the cup comes from increased buying activity again leading to a near parabolic rally. The handle represents a short term correction. I believe that yesterday was the dip of the handle, and that going forwards, we may start to see the red arrow materialize.
I believe it’s also good timing. We have some crazy option open interest this week, and it would make sense for long side to begin the big push mid week. Just speculation though.
Premarket Analysis
I believe today, we will see some crazy up and downswings. We’ll likely trade sideways or follow an uptrend.
Super standard setup for today. We’ll likely begin with a selloff by swing traders. Then the momentum will carry us up. How low will the selloff take us? SSR would be nice but we are almost 4 support levels above the SSR threshold of 187.35.
