| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/aNinjaAtNight |
Hello Apes!
EDIT: Sorry my images weren’t working cause I edited this on my phone.
After the ass-kicking I got from u/the_captain_slog, I decided to provide some REAL DD. I spent the last 10 hours compiling this, so I presume this is going to be one of the biggest DD’s for the day, although it may not be helpful.
TLDR: please just check out this spreadsheet, it took me 10 hours and an all nighter, but I was able to figure out how many shares each ETF owns of GME: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PZ2-hnCtDNRnbE8Wm5ByudBcg26T3lGjsec9bSE9x9I/edit?usp=sharing
Please know, I have your best interest at heart, and I am here to protect all apes. What I am sharing next will need a critical eye from the wrinklest of our Apes because of the following factors:
My process / workflow may be incorrect.
This may cause genuine FUD, but we must hold strong and let the data speak for itself.
Get rid of confirmation bias. This is people’s LIFE’s SAVINGS we’re talking about (including my own). I actually have friends who followed me on purchasing GME, and I was really worried about posting this if it turns out negative, if you guys exit before me and my friends, I will lose $75k. But it is the right thing to do. I still have hope and I think we are on the winning side, but I need smarter Apes to really look at this closely.
u/FatAspirations, u/HeyItsPixel, u/Rensole, please take a look at this and make sense of the data.
And….Here…We…Go.
I went to this website to find all of the ETFs that own GME:
Note the 10.5 Million Shares
Afterwards, I thought up a way to find out how many shares each of the ETFs owned.. It was hard. A lot of websites are reporting different %s. For example XRT was reported at 16, 14, and 3.44%. I didn’t know how or want to use data that was conflicting or from different sources.
Than, an idea hit me, and it grew from there. I went to this website: https://etfdb.com/ and signed up for a pro account.
Here, you can search up the holdings of all of the ETFs. I did so, and I exported their CSVs. I will link to all of my CSV data files here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1cV7zWK4EmJ46PabRTKEDZk9NxjzO2oFu?usp=sharing
In the CSV, there is a few pieces of data:
What I did next was take the total amount of shares outstanding in the ETF and backtracked to that date on ThinkorSwim for TD Ameritrade:
I made sure the date would match when the “Fund Holdings as of” was reported, and I checked the closing price. I would multiply this to get the total market capitalization of the ETF.
Afterwards, I would check GME’s closing price on the same date. I would then multiply by the weighting % two pictures above against the ETFs total market capitalization. Afterwards, I would divide by the GME share price for that SAME day. This would give me the total # of shares that ETF held GME on that recorded date. Finally, I would multiply those shares again by GME’s current price giving me the market capitalization that ETF holds for GME as of March 14th.
Below is my spreadsheet of all 63 ETFs that hold GME:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PZ2-hnCtDNRnbE8Wm5ByudBcg26T3lGjsec9bSE9x9I/edit?usp=sharing
The total amount of shares I got was 10.8m, which isn’t too far off from the reported 10.5m. Now some of these ETFs may have already rebalanced. I don’t know when their rebalance date was, and perhaps that’s why my data is off.
If you look at the spreadsheet, I have columns for the rebalance date, the record date, and the ex-dividend date. I also have columns for contact numbers for the ETF if you can find it, so we can call and FIND OUT.
I need YOUR help to get this data. If you post in the comments, I can update my spreadsheet so we all know what’s happening.
Okay, so what’s the big deal about this?
This is where my lack of understanding in the markets is a detriment:
Is short interest the total % of outstanding shares? If my company has 100m shares, and my short interest is 30%, does that mean 30million shares are shorted? What is GME’s current speculated total short interest, and how many shares need to be bought back? Is it many times over 10.5m?
Market psychology tells us that ETF Managers wouldn’t really care about a squeeze and they are not diamond handers. If I was the hedge fund manager of an ETF, I would be looking to minimize volatility for my clients, and post a profit. Given that this is the safest way to secure my job, I would sell GME at it’s high and make my clients happy, instead of risking a YOLO diamond hand with their entire portfolio EVEN if it’s a 100% sure thing. Companies don’t do YOLOs and they need a margin of safety. GME is not in that margin.
I have heard that before a company can rebalance, if that share is loaned out, they must recall it. However, what is preventing these ETFs from generating MORE counterfeit shares when they rebalance?
With the data I have provided, we can get a clearer picture of how the markets will move from when ETF’s rebalance. If you know their rebalance date, you can reasonably assume, they will rebalance to 0-3%. That allows us to know how much volume of shares will be transacted during the rebalance period.
Melvin and Co have been using S3 Partners and Forbes to push a Gamma Event that never occurred. Be on the look out from them for news this week.
I know we like conspiracies, and I am a big confirmation biaser. I get hard on speculation and confirmation bias, but if we use Occam’s Razor for reasoning, we arrive at a few conclusions:
1) DFV is cool and the boss, but it is in his best interest for us to hold. He has a sizeable investment.
2) Ryan Cohen and GME with their cryptic tweets make us think they know something is coming up, but if you are in their shoes, you just want to keep the GME hype up. Ryan Cohen also owns 10% shares in GME, and if GME squeezes, he will become the richest man alive. Could it just be as likely that he is HOPING for a squeeze, rather than planning a squeeze?
3) If Fintech and data is right, we have dropped significantly from the short interest in January.
Right now we are a WAVE of confirmation biased apes. It would be just as easy for Melvin and Co to setup posts and have leaders in our community tout the squeeze is coming, the squeeze is coming (Forbes article, S3 Partners, etc) and be PLAYING THE OTHER SIDE and leaving us BAG holding. This is the mother of ALL FUD, but don’t be risking your retirement BLINDLY thinking that you’re gonna be a millionaire. I am trying to bring reality back in, and it is fucking scary for me as well.
4) My past history has already shown I have tried to protect you. I told many of you not to buy 0delta calls and made a post on why the Gamma Squeeze was not occurring on Friday. I received so much love and replies from that post, so don’t think I am trying to hurt you. Check my previous posts.
5) Apes, if you find the data for the Dividend Dates, Contact # of the ETF, or Rebalance Dates, please post in the comment and I will update the spreadsheet throughout the day.
6) Finally, WITH ALL of that said, I still believe in DFV, RC, and I think there’s something more. I do think I don’t understand stonk math, and if someone can really put the DD in here to explain the minimum shares float, and how we will survive the mass selling of 10.5million shares, I am being told that that would be excellent. I’m going to be losing $75,000 with you apes, or we are going to the fucking moon.
EDIT: 7) Regardless of whether or not you agree with sentiment of my post, the data itself is useful. You can downvote this post to hell, but the data I compiled will let you know how much share volume will be expected to move for each ETF’s rebalance date.
EDIT: 8) I am talking to people in the GME Discord now who are explaining to me how an ETF works and how it replicated an index cause I’m a dumb motherfucker. All of my FUD is probably completely wrong. I will update once I understand to explain to all Apes!
ZybSter — Today at 7:49 AM
There are several types of ETFs - Swapped based ETFs (do not have anything to do with the stock market) - Physically replicating ETFs (need to buy every share) and then there are another one which call themselves “optimized sampling” (they still buy the stocks - but some stocks maybe too small)
Zel — Today at 7:48 AM
So from what I understand, an ETF is basically something that is percentagely reflected of the index it is trying to reflect. And if GME moves up to a higher index, which is definitely what is going to happen, more money is just going to go into those new ETFs, and more investments will buy up GME
Edit: 9), Got an Update from u/the_captain_slog. Most of XRT shares are lent out, and XRT is a sampling ETF, they do not have to follow the index. Here are the pictures to show XRT’s holdings:
Not Financial Advice.
