Author: u/WardenElite
Again to reiterate, since this should probably be at the top. This is not financial advice. It’s at the bottom of every post but from now on I’ll keep this at the top.
Summary of resources I used to learn:
I would recommend Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by Murphy and How to Day Trade for a Living by Aziz. You can find the free PDFs online. I watch Humbled Trader on YouTube. She’s legit and really knows what she’s doing. I also read a lot of Investopedia and learned about options trading from the online websites Options Playbook and TheOptionsGuide. Understand options is important for understanding trends, sentiment and where prices should go. Being able to read and understand the options chain is important. I use several tools at my disposal. Namely, optionistics for understanding IV and option price trends, barchart for options chain, OptionSonar for scanning for unusual options activity, Webull for charting and level 2 data, ThinkOrSwim for quick news scanning and Stonk-O-Tracker for SSR data. I check TradingView for amateur trading ideas just to make sure I haven’t missed anything, and I like to read Form-10Qs (quarterly earnings), Form-8Ks (emergency updates), Form S-1 (for IPOs), 13Gs to track institutional positions (it’s usually outdated but still useful), and 13Fs for funds that didn’t file a 13G.
Edit 27 3:59 PM:
That’s a wrap for today folks. Looks like a bit of hammering before market close. We’ll be ending the day in the red today. I will be scouring the internet for updates on the state of the play.
I personally view markets as deterministic mixed with a bit of chaos theory. Somebody on the inside probably already knows the outcome of Friday. I personally believe 300 is a reasonable target and lies within the expected price range by options data.
Yesterday was unprecedented though with the ferocity of the short attack. I strongly believe they killed crucial momentum yesterday that would have taken this stock easily to 400 dollars. Thus I believe you should all take future predictions with a grain of salt from both me and others. You’ll see that a lot of my predictions did come true, but that only happens in a naturally evolving market. My specialty is predicting natural movements; I cannot account for unusual options activity nor market manipulation by shorts.
Great summary of today: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m2vlmx/todays_action_so_far/
Edit 26 3:46 PM:
Edit 25 3:18 PM:
If we do liftoff today, we’ll be testing the 275 and 282 levels.
If we don’t see anything by 3:45PM, then it’s unlikely we’ll see any further action today. I know it may be boring for some of you when there’s an hour between edits, but unfortunately right now it’s all noise. Nothing interesting has happened with the price. Hopefully we’ll get a fireworks show later today or tomorrow!
Edit 24 3:15 PM:
Nothing interesting so far. That rally we just saw was underwhelming.
Edit 23 2:11 PM:
Nothing too interesting so far, a slow crawl above VWAP.
Possible cup and handle forming at the 15m scale. Thanks to u/11acm24 earlier for letting me know about synthetic shorts and u/CountGeeTee for noticing the cup and handle.
Edit 22 1:09 PM:
I would like to make an edit to edit 17. 300 dollars is a high probability price target but not a certainty. Here’s why.
Because you can still short on a downtick with a synthetic position.
Checkout Tony Oz’s video on youtube about this.
What does this mean for today? We may see a lot of downwards pressure making it harder for the stock to climb. It really depends on how many bullets short side has setup on GME. Time will tell. Hang in tight fellow apes.
Edit 21 12:35 PM:
Expect a couple dips and some more consolidation for now. I will be doing some research on the options chain. Will be back soon.
Edit 20 12:11 PM:
Volume is low, around 50-60k per minute. Seems like a standoff until the long whales pull the trigger. It’s advantageous for them to pull the trigger later in the day because that leaves less time for the stock price to correct and fall, allowing it to end higher for the day.
Edit 19 11:48 AM:
B is more likely.
Edit 18 11:38 AM:
Woops. Sorry Ken, I panic bought more shares with my remaining food money.
Edit 17 11:29 AM:
Boys and girls, I believe the Gamma Squeeze is about to begin (later today or tomorrow). Check the 30 day iv on Market Chameleon. We’re crawling towards a high meaning that Call option purchasing is mostly done as the premiums have gone up again. I believe they loaded up on Calls during yesterday’s and today’s dips when IV was lower and they’ve completed phase 1 of rocket booster ignition.
If you check the options chain, there is a marked decrease in call option purchasing around the zone where we will begin liftoff. Furthermore the volume has died down and the open interest is huge as fuck. I believe between today and tomorrow, 300 dollars is a certainty.
Edit 16 11:07 AM:
Again those 2 pushes to 272 288 will likely come later. Right now it’s just doing typical consolidations and corrections. It’s forming an 8 step Elliot wave like yesterday. Didn’t bother to predict it ahead of time because this isn’t too interesting. The real interesting movement will be the 288 push onwards.
Edit 15 11:00 AM:
A little PSA on stop losses. Market makers can see your damn stop losses. Many other cronnies can see them to. Not financial advice, but remove your stop losses. Seriously though, you only lose money when you sell. Yesterday’s flash crash triggered some stop losses which wasn’t ideal. If you don’t want to get rekt, I would suggest removing them.
Edit 14 10:52 AM:
Btw I appreciate all of your kind comments :D I’ll answer only questions in the comments as I will be focusing on charting and research, but know that I appreciate your words of encouragement.
Edit 13 10:45 AM:
The price should hit two resistance lines eventually. It might take a while before we begin the push into these areas. Expect consolidation in those channels. Past these two lines, if smart money wants to be aggressive and add buying pressure, we will test 295 and 300.
Edit 12 10:38 AM:
It will probably trade sideways for now until smart money decides it’s time to pull the trigger.
Edit 11 10:27 AM:
Btw I have a test at 10 AM tomorrow, so I’ll be off for an hour that day.
Edit 10 10:22 AM:
It’s consolidating now in the 256.5 and 263 channel. Price action is a bit boring right now. Expect it to keep bouncing around historical channels.
Edit 9 10:05 AM:
I’m gonna take a brief pause from the chart. At this point it’s bouncing between historical channels so nothing too interesting is happening. Instead I’ll answer some of your questions in this edit. A couple of you have been wondering about my background and what resources I used to learn technical analysis and day/swing trading.
I would recommend Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by Murphy and How to Day Trade for a Living by Aziz. You can find the free PDFs online. I watch Humbled Trader on YouTube. She’s legit and really knows what she’s doing. I also read a lot of Investopedia and learned about options trading from the online website Options Playbook. Understand options is important for understanding trends, sentiment and where prices should go. Being able to read and understand the options chain is important.
As for my background. I’m still in college and I will go fulltime as a software engineer. However I want to retire in my late 20s so I’m ready to continue YOLOing my life savings on highly asymmetrical trades. I consider GME a pretty safe trade with high Reward:Risk ratio > 3:1.
A bit about my trading history. There’s a difference between trades and investing. Investing is concerned with a company’s fundamentals whereas trading is more concerned with technical analysis. I still use fundamental analysis to understand the sentiment of a stock, but I base my daily trades on mostly technical analysis.
I started my trading career scalping blue chip stocks with Robinhood, but realized that Robinhood sucks ass and rips you off with bad execution. Thus I swapped over to Webull (which fucking rocks btw, it’s one of the best platforms honestly). I did my first YOLO on Palantir a bit after IPO when I determined the Reward:Risk ratio was 2:1 from some analysis. I doubled my money after a few months.
I swapped back to scalping. It’s basically quick day trades for pennies at a time. I scalped some Facebook and PLTR, but got bored of it so I began looking for my next YOLO.
I went on WallStreetBets one day and found GME memes. It gave me a good laugh and I got curious, looked into GME and then realized GME has a Reward:Risk ratio of 1000:1. This was the trade of a lifetime. The floor of the price was limited to the retail line at 40 dollars and the ceiling was in the hundreds of thousands.
So I YOLOed my life savings into GME at an average of 85 dollars a share and I’ve since almost tripled my life savings since after PLTR, and 6xed my savings since before PLTR. :D
Last note, I’m not a fan of diversification. I’m also not a fan of long term investing. These are two highly controversial beliefs, but everything technical analysis has taught me says the returns are so much better if you swing and day trade. However, it’s a time commitment and it’s not for everyone. It’s honestly fine to long term invest if you are busy, but short term trading is what will get you the best gains.
Edit 8 10:04 AM:
So I just realized there’s a 275 historical resistance I haven’t drawn.
Thus expect it to bounce on 275.
Edit 7 10:02 AM:
Scenario B completed and it broke out to the upside. Remember this event is conditional on the momentum picking up. Expect it to try and reach the historical 281.8 resistance. Don’t be surprised if it fails. It needs significant buying power to reach it.
Edit 6 9:56 AM:
I believe scenario B is more likely. It’s ready for a strong rebound up. What’s not drawn is scenario C. I believe it may breakout to 281. This is the least probable scenario. I don’t see enough momentum for C to happen and the Bid Ask spread is only 70 cents wide right now.
Edit 5 9:52 AM:
Completely forgot, but yes we triggered SSR! Looks like my premarket prediction was right, the dump just came a bit later than expected but we bounced on that purple support line as predicted.
Edit 4 9:47 AM:
Please upvote this post to help increase visibility for our fellow apes :D. If you are wondering about the state of the play, we’re on our way back to 350. If we can break that, we’ll be jettisoning towards 500 again. If we break 500, we may be well on our way to the thousands. The play has never changed. These were always our targets. Why did Robinhood stop buyers before the 500 level? Because the 500 level is a threshold level where options trigger a massive squeeze. 350 and and 500 are both threshold levels that we need to return to.
Expect midday to contain some institutional action. Again, the usual rally midday should be expected.
Edit 3 9:45 AM:
Breakout to the downside confirmed.
It’s likely that it will test the 232 historical support, consolidate, and attempt to move back up towards VWAP. Expect it to bounce and recover. In the image, my support is a bit lower than it should be, I’ve adjusted it.
Edit 2 9:37 AM:
Two likely paths it can proceed. Path A is much more likely as it’s showing decent buying pressure.
The 250-256.5 channel is a likely consolidation zone, but expect it to breakout after a brief period of consolidation. I expect the breakout to be to the downside but it is below VWAP. Therefore after it drops, we’ll see it recover later on.
Edit 1 9:32 AM:
And again, it usually dumps, but it’s evident that that’s not the case for today. It’s shot straight up and is now testing two important historical resistance levels at 256.5, and 262. Expect it to attempt consolidation within this channel.
Begin Reading Here
This post will read bottom to top. It’s easier for people to refresh the page and see edits at the top.
I usually sleep in so I won’t be able to release this post early in the morning like Rensole does, so the visibility will be better if I release this tonight. Please upvote this post to help raise the visibility so our fellow apes can find this post easier tomorrow morning.
Gooooooooood morning my fellow silverback diamond handed apes,
Warden here, your resident crayon artist,
pretty crazy ride yesterday right? Hedgies shorted the crap out of GME, but oops! They let it fall too far and it’s now on the SSR. That wasn’t supposed to happen!
I bet you apes are waking up to a very red premarket for GME while all the other stocks are green. Don’t worry. Our friendly neighborhood clown Jim Cramer explained in an interview how bringing the stock up premarket, and fading it down creates a really negative sentiment. I see this all the time after earnings calls and overnight swing trades. I’ll dive into this further in my premarket analysis. From a strategy perspective, if this is a long whale trying to hit SSR for Friday, then this is a genius move. If you plan on buying the dip, maybe wait until it triggers SSR. 238.5 is the trigger price.
https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/
This is not financial advice, blah blah blah. Now take this crayon and let’s draw together! I’ll be checking the comments frequently and answering your questions. Sort by “new” to see the latest Q&A.
Links to previous predictions:
My exit strategy:
https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/
3/10:
https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m1ynfc/live_charting_for_3102021_mapping_out_todays/
3/9: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m187nr/live_charting_for_392021_mapping_out_the_days/
Premarket Analysis
We’re starting off the day with really negative sentiment built into GME, especially since S&P 500 are up and most stocks are in the green. I believe this is a manufactured sentiment, and from a strategy perspective, I think long whales are perpetrating it.
Typically to create negative sentiment, you bring the stock up, and then fade it down. This usually creates some panic buying before market open, followed by a panic selling from swing traders. It may test the 230 historical support (purple line) and bounce. Or it may bounce early once SSR hits. If it triggers SSR for Friday, that’s a win for us. This is likely the last chance for us to get extra SSR before the momentum kicks into high gear.