Author: u/WardenElite
Again to reiterate, since this should probably be at the top. This is not financial advice. It’s at the bottom of every post but from now on I’ll keep this at the top.
Summary of resources I used to learn:
I would recommend Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by Murphy and How to Day Trade for a Living by Aziz. You can find the free PDFs online. I watch Humbled Trader on YouTube. She’s legit and really knows what she’s doing. I also read a lot of Investopedia and learned about options trading from the online websites Options Playbook and TheOptionsGuide. Understand options is important for understanding trends, sentiment and where prices should go. Being able to read and understand the options chain is important. I use several tools at my disposal. Namely, optionistics for understanding IV and option price trends, barchart for options chain, OptionSonar for scanning for unusual options activity, Webull for charting and level 2 data, ThinkOrSwim for quick news scanning and Stonk-O-Tracker for SSR data. I check TradingView for amateur trading ideas just to make sure I haven’t missed anything, and I like to read Form-10Qs (quarterly earnings), Form-8Ks (emergency updates), Form S-1 (for IPOs), 13Gs to track institutional positions (it’s usually outdated but still useful), and 13Fs for funds that didn’t file a 13G.
Edit 35 4:00 PM:
What a solid fucking finish to the day. We were shorted down to the ground but we ended the day up 6.21%! Keep in mind this is a win. We are on SSR for tomorrow! I heard stonks go up.
See you apes on the moon tomorrow.
Edit 34 2:49 PM:
I’ll be back later in the day, probably around power hour. Will post another edit if anything interesting happens.
Edit 33 2:28 PM:
It’s since formed a dome. The short attack was certainly effective in staving off momentum. The price should recover more slowly. Shorts may not even need to cover EOD. They can choose to do it on another day. Especially if this was long side whales triggering SSR, expect them to cover when they want to price to skyrocket.
Edit 32 1:59 PM:
Time for some speculation. Could this short attack be done by our whale allies? Possibly so. After all, we should have hit the SSR today which will be insurance against short attacks for today and tomorrow. Short attacks can be used either as an SSR insurance policy for long side whales, or they can be used by the short side to stave momentum. Momentum is crucial for a squeeze. If long side has determined that momentum should recover, they may have short attacked to acquire the SSR insurance policy. However, it is fishy though that mainstream media reported this particular short attack so I’m leaning towards short side whales attacking.
Edit 31 1:30 PM:
Anatomy of a short attack price cliff
When a shorter initiates an attack, they put MASSIVE sell orders to generate downwards momentum. Algorithms and day traders quickly pick up on this and amplify this trend. Panic sellers usually get out pretty late. However, shorts must buy back what they sold if they intended to do a temporary attack. Whatever distance they moved needs to be returned. Call it the “Law of conservation of shares”. Thus during a short attack, their objective is to create the most amount of algo, day trading and panic selling possible. People might wonder if shorts have infinite ammo. They do not because if panic sellers don’t exist, they can’t drive the price down much at all. By the end of the day, the shorts must return what they sold. Keep in mind that day traders are net neutral. They both help drive the price up as well as down. Therefore day traders don’t contribute and don’t really detract from the chances of a GME squeeze. You should not day trade this stock if you want a squeeze, because assuming you are already holding, you would have a negative impact on this stock if you sold.
Algo traders also don’t really matter. They are also like day traders and they don’t move the price that much. If shorts moved 90% of the drop, and 10% was from panic sellers, then the shorts have actually only gained -10%. That’s pathetic. Buying pressure will quickly overwhelm them and the price will recover.
TLDR for Edit 31; shorts don’t have infinite ammo. They don’t gain any ground if there are no panic sellers. Their attack simply disrupts momentum which can hurt us, but in the long run there is more buying pressure.
Edit 30 1:20 PM:
This was an orchestrated attack. Check the news: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/gamestop-surges-40percent-then-wipes-out-gain-completely-and-is-halted-again.html
News outlets everywhere trying to spread FUD. Too bad my fingers are hard as diamonds. Can’t press the sell button even if I wanted to.
Edit 29 1:15 PM:
Knowledge is power. Wedge A confirmed, this was a short attack. We’ll be expecting a return to the mean very soon. Short it again hedgies, I dare you. No one is selling.
Edit 28 12:52 PM:
Boys and girls, I believe it is time for our beloved triangle wedge to begin forming. And no this should not be the Alpha Triangle. Read more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/
If we see wedge A form, we can confirm this was a short attack. Know that Wedges form lower when market manipulation happens. If wedge B forms, then perhaps this was not a short attack (very unlikely).
A short attack is when you constantly hit the Bid side of the trade. This drives the price into the ground. As the price drops initially from short attacking, day traders who contributed to the climb and algo traders will sell in panic amplifying the drop. However these drops are usually short lived and result in a recovery and consolidation.
After the recovery wedge forms, we may finally see the return to means above VWAP as predicted in edit 24.
Edit 27 12:40 PM:
GME should be on the SSR list. The SSR rule is that if a stock drops below 10% from the previous day’s close, it’s on SSR for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Please double check me on that if it is indeed on SSR. This means that if we see more selling, it’s more normal selling than short attacking. We’ll find out soon. I’m scanning the news and broader market for new developments. Seems QQQ is at a low for the day. Coincidence?
Edit 26 12:37 PM:
Please keep in mind this is not natural market movement, especially since it’s consolidated so nicely these past two days. Short attack? Market makers dumping shares? Doesn’t matter. I’m holding.
The stock is halted and we should see the return to means soon (unless this is a short attack. In which case it has some or a lot of downside left).
Edit 22 12:03 PM:
C) IT IS THEN. CALLING ALL WHALES!
Edit 21 11:57 AM:
The market is really coming in clutch. Check QQQ and see how it is continuously rising. This is making scenarios A) and B) less and less likely. We may see solid consolidation at around this level or option C) happening.
Edit 20 11:48 AM:
This looks like a double top to me. It’s a common reversal pattern.
There are 3 likely scenarios. A) being the most probable, B) about equally probable (B is a fib retracement. Prices tend to settle at 61.8% of the height of a rally. C) is if there is more buying pressure and it makes its next push to the 346 resistance from the January squeeze.
Edit 19 11:39 AM:
Anndddddd…it sliced through 320 like butter. Volume at half a million last minute. This is getting heated. Midday rally is in full force. The marked increase in volume suggests we may see this rally continue for a while.
Edit 18 11:33 AM:
Or it can just keep going up because it wants to :shrug. Welcome to midday trading.
Edit 17 11:26 AM:
We’re seeing some action again. West Coast waking up eh?
It should begin consolidation soon. RSI way overextended. I expect a breakout to the downside later on back to a few levels above VWAP followed by some further consolidation.
Edit 16 11:17 AM:
Quick lesson for drawing support and resistance lines. Put the chart at 1 minute, look for 3 reversal points that are roughly at the same level, and place a horizontal line there.
Voila, you now have a support/resistance line. When the price trades above it, it is a support. When the price trades below it, it’s a resistance! Notice how the price almost perfectly bounces between all these predetermined lines. This is super useful to day traders. If you are looking to swing trade, just make the time scale 5 minutes or greater and do the exact same line placements. The price will bounce on longer time scale support and resistance lines as well.
Edit 15 11:02 AM:
BTW as for end of day predictions, day traders can use ETFs to made an educated guess. Given that QQQ is likely reversing, we can expect it to drag GME up EOD. Thus, I believe a 305-315 price target is reasonable for GME EOD.
Edit 14 10:59 AM:
At this point, most of the interesting action is over. Expect HFT to dominate most of midday trading. I expect the stock to consolidate, trade sideways and perhaps rally midday or during power hour again like yesterday. I’ll post another edit if something crazy happens :D
Edit 13 10:46 AM:
Guess why GME is bouncing right now. Look no further than QQQ. These two are bouncing together. Further evidence of High Frequency Trading.
It’s usually during midday after the first hour that High Frequency Trading takes over. Day traders don’t like trading during this time, because the price movements are basically just broader market movements. It’s way harder to predict what algorithms are thinking.
Edit 12 10:38 AM:
Earlier in this post, I mentioned that the S&P up is a good thing for this stock. It’s really just generally good for any stock I pick to day trade. What I like to do is do technical analysis on ETFs to predict in the short, will the market go up or down? If I can determine if the week is bullish or bearish, I can lean towards one trading strategy. For example on a bearish week, I will go short side and short stocks more than I long them. My favorite ETF to examine in this current market environment is QQQ, a tech heavy ETF. We’ve read about how tech is being oversold dragging the S&P 500 down. Thus since QQQ is tech heavy, it’s a great indicator of the overall market health.
Right as I am typing this, we are seeing GME briefly cross below VWAP. Guess why? Because QQQ is correcting itself and going down right now. We see QQQ premarket rallied unsustainably, so during the day it’s bound for a correction. Thus, at the moment I’m typing this, QQQ just fell super fast dragging GME down with it a bit.
How the fuck does another stock affect GME? Because of High Frequency Trading. Ever notice that AMC, GME and a couple other stocks had similar trendlines in the past? That’s because HFT algorithms like to trade stocks together in batches. Thus movements in the broader market can result in micro movements in singular stocks. Algorithm A determines that the market wants to go down, so it will be bearishly biased towards stocks in general like GME.
I believe in the short term, for this week and maybe next, the market will recover and trade upwards which is good for GME. Check the QQQ chart to see how it’s trending upwards overall.
Edit 11 10:31 AM:
Again we’ve seen the same exact movement yesterday. At some point, given how long the price has stayed above VWAP, we should expect it to fall and bounce on VWAP followed by a steady recovery because of how bullish the stock is.
I believe it has a low likelihood of crossing VWAP in the short term. It will probably bounce on VWAP a few times and stay within the 293.5 to 288 channel for a while.
Edit 10 10:20 AM:
We’re seeing some really healthy consolidation. Notice how RSI is almost flat in the blue zone.
This is really good. Remember back during the first squeeze how it went up to 400, dipped to 100 in crazy 180 degree swings? That’s because the stock never had a chance to consolidate. What we’re seeing right now is a healthy sustainable price increase. We should aim for these kind of slow and steady climbs rather than an overnight spike through the roof.
Edit 9 10:16 AM:
Please upvote this if you are enjoying the commentary :D For every upvote, that’s an extra dollar above 500k I will be holding GME.
Edit 8 10:12 AM:
Just a fun fact, most day traders have made a couple grand and ended their trading day already at 10 AM. The play by play I’ve done so far would have been my trading plan for the day. As a day trader, you only have to gain about 2% a day to be self-sustainable. Why am I not day trading right now? Because I YOLOed my life savings into GME and I’m holding it with my diamond fucking hands.
Edit 7 10:04 AM:
That was a quick consolidation! It’s already chosen to breakout to the upside smashing through the 293.5 resistance we previously speculated on. It may consolidate around that and use it as a support, but I think that’s unlikely. The price is way above VWAP and definitely overextended so expect it to fall and consolidate around the upper region of the 288-293 channel. I’ll be posting pictures less frequently so I don’t hit my limit of 20 on a post.
Edit 6 10:00 AM:
Elliot wave confirmed. It’s now bouncing on VWAP and ready to consolidate.
Notice how volume has decreased and if you check the Bid Ask Spread, it’s only 50 cents right now. Given that VWAP is touching a historical support line, I predict the price should consolidate above this support in the short term.
Edit 5 9:54 AM:
One likely pattern we might see is an Elliot 8 step wave.
Example wave
Given that it’s over extended, its more likely to fall than to rise.
For example I drew these two lines back in January. Notice how the price is trading so far within this range. It could breakout of a resistance making it a likely support line after if it consolidates above. The next movements of this stock will probably involve a push above 282, a correction and then consolidation.
Edit 1 9:29 AM:
It’s worth taking a look at implied volatility to understand where we’re at in terms of the play. You can check MarketChameleon for IV data.
As you can see, IV is jacked through the roof, but it’s since settled down a bit. This makes the stock more attractive to options players as the premiums aren’t quite as bad. It’s still pretty darn expensive to buy calls, but if IV stays constant as the price keeps climbing, that’s a good thing. One sign that we are nearing the squeeze/end of the options game is when IV starts spiking really high. When IV spikes, whoever is spearheading the push must have determined that options are no longer a priority for winning because when IV spikes, fewer and fewer people will want to buy options with such high premiums.
Begin Reading Here
Good morning fellow apes,
Warden here, your resident crayon artist,
who’s ready for some drawings today?
This is not financial advice, blah blah blah. Now take this crayon and let’s draw together!
Housekeeping Items
I’ll be posting Live Charting posts daily now at around market open 9:30 AM EST. Edits will show up at the top of this post with the latest edit at the top. Some people have been wondering if I will stream in the future. To put it simply, I will consider it in the future, but I believe posts are much more digestible than hour long streams. It’s also quicker for apes who are late to the party to catch up on updates. Also a bit draining to constantly have to engage with the audience. I’m a lazy kind of ape with only one bagel to eat.
I’ll be checking the comments frequently and answering your questions. Sort by “new” to see the latest Q&A.
If you haven’t already, checkout my exit strategy DD for how to trade the short squeeze when it comes: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/
Premarket Analysis
It’s 9:28 AM right now. The S&P gapped up today and most tech stocks are starting premarket in the green. This is good news for GME as a market bounce will help lift the price (High Frequency Algorithms will drive it up, so will day traders).
We’re seeing some choppy action premarket. Really unsustainable gap up followed by an eventual gap fill near market open. A gap fill is when the price drops across the gap up and fills it. Seeing that it’s underbought on RSI, trading under VWAP and MACD is ready to converge, expect the price to rally at market open. Don’t be surprised if we begin with a small selloff first before the rally begins.