| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/oaf_king |
Warning: more confirmation for your bias ahead.
Edits to provide more clarity (part TL;DR, part context for the post):
I am analyzing the run-up in January with the price points this week. Specifically, I am comparing the dates January 6 to 28 (inclusive) with February 17 up to the present, using price points from those dates.
I use statistics, particularly a test called Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation to evaluate the data. This technique produces Spearman’s Rho (ρ) as a measure of correlation; the closer to 1 that this value is, the stronger the correlation between two data sets.
P-values are also provided. In statistics, a p-value less than 0.05 is considered statistically significant. That is to say, random chance does not explain the correlation; there would have to be an external explanation.
In short: History is rhyming hard.
I’ve added a chart comparing the volume. As of March 3, ρ = 0.7364 with p-value (2-tailed) = 0.00976
I wrote a follow-up post with additional ideas
March 8 update (final one in series)
I wrote a post (which explains some of the math behind what’s in this post) before market open today, which calculated the correlation between the run-up in January and what we’re seeing this past week. I’ve updated the math with today’s high price of $127.75 and closing price of $124.18.
Spearman’s Rho (ρ) for the high price test = 0.8334, with a p-value (2-tailed) of 0.00311. Prior to market open, the values were ρ = 0.8303 with p-value = 0.00294
Spearman’s Rho (ρ) for the closing price test = 0.9455, with a p-value (2-tailed) of 1E-05 (that’s more or less 0.00001). Prior to market open, the values were ρ = 0.9273 with p-value = 0.00011
Given the p-values, we’re deep in this zone of statistical significance here. However, this doesn’t mean we can pinpoint the cause (for correlation =/= causation).
For those who prefer visuals:
With the daily close of $124.18, the correlation is stronger than it was yesterday.
I’m beyond ecstatic. We saw a dip early on today and another in the latter half, with a very tight battle along the $119 and $121 band, but still ended up with a high price and a close price that reinforces the correlation. What’s incredible about today is that this happened:
while the SP500 went down (notice how it dipped hard during power hour)
without the Short Sale Restriction rule getting triggered
with dramatic action in the last 15 minutes; today’s result is like the jump from January 20 ($39.12 close) to January 21 ($43.03 close)
GME continues to hold its ground, and I’m confident retail investors are fish partaking in a battle between whales.
Tomorrow and Friday will provide more numbers to work with, and I dare say: Based on the current numbers, the next few trading days may be the final opportunity to grab a seat on the rocket before take off, this time potentially more dramatic than the run-up in January.
Edited to add: Volume
Here is a chart comparing the volume. Again, I’m using the trading dates January 6 to January 28 (inclusive) and comparing them with February 17 to the present day.
A comparison of the volume between the two data sets.
Using Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation test, ρ = 0.7364 with p-value (2-tailed) = 0.00976. As the p-value is less than 0.05, the numbers are statistically significant, and one can claim that there’s correlation between the volumes. Not to the extent as the pricing, however.
As usual: this is not meant to be financial advice, but material that shows how much I like the stock. For those versed in statistical analysis, please provide your thoughts on the results.